Small-Moderate Event Tomorrow

My thoughts on a developing weather situation

Current Observations
021613 Water Vapor 115 PM
A deep trough is digging into the Eastern US.  Florida will have its coldest weather in years tonight.
021613 IR satellite imagery 145 PM
Snow is falling in North and South Carolina 
Radar Raleigh/Durham NWS
There is a decent chance someone ends up with close to 6 inches in this region.  The storm will move up the coast and pass close to the benchmark of 40 N 70 W.  The surface chart looks like this
1115 AM surface analysis (HPC)
Low pressure will strengthen as it moves along the stationary boundary off the east coast.  HPC has issued the following snowfall probabilities
Sat 7 am- Sun 7 am snowfall probs > 4" (HPC)
Here are the Day 2 probabilities
Sun 7 am-Mon 7 am snowfall probs >4" (HPC)
Some models show literally nothing for the Northeast.  My guess is they are transferring energy to low pressure further out to sea.  This can happen; I got burned in college forecasting 8-12 and we ended up with 0.4 or so.  This is not the same set up so not expecting a repeat.  This system begins around midnight and lasts until noon or so.  Eastern MA and Maine will hold onto snow conditions longer.  The NWS in Taunton is not expecting much west of 495
Blue Winter Wx Advisory, Pink Winter Storm Warning
I'm a little bit higher in my amounts
MY forecast for tonight/tomorrow
Snow should be fluffy as temperatures will be near 20
00z EURO 7 am SUN 2 m max temps (image wxbell)
I'll be watching this evolve with great interest there is a high bust potential.


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