Total Snowfall Outlook

Before the totals a few morning updates...Blizzard Watches have extended to Southern Worcester County, Washington and Kent Counties in Rhode Island, and to the Eastern 2/3's of Connecticut.

NWS Boston/New York Watches and Warnings

By my count blizzard watches have not been issued since the post Christmas storm of 2010.  The January 12, 2011 storm may have prompted blizzard watches; although that was more of a heavy snow producer around here.  Also there is a Hurricane Force Wind Watch for the waters in between Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and the Mid-Cape.  The storm is now forecast to produce moderate to major coastal flooding along the coast.

Current Conditions

Here is a look at the various features that will come together to produce this classic

Thursday Morning Surface Analysis

High pressure over Ontario will provide the cold needed for the snow.  Low pressure diving across the Plains will energize low pressure along the Gulf Coast, which in turn will pick up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico AND Atlantic Ocean.  It will also feel the Gulf Stream and deepen before it is energized by the Clipper.  Finally a trough digging in the west (4) will help eject the system towards the Northeast.

New Orleans Radar 6 AM

Plenty of juice already with the Gulf of Mexico system.  The Northern system is weaker since it cannot tap the GOM

Chicago radar 6 AM

Here is the Water Vapor Satellite

Water Vapor Satellite 515 AM

There is a lot of moisture and energy to work with.  So here is what I am thinking

02-07 snowfall forecast for 02/08-09

I've seen the GFS but I buy the EURO.  I don't understand why some forecasters are throwing out the higher amounts just because "they are excessive".  They are excessive but there is support from the best models we have.  The EURO operational locked onto the solution and its ensembles are just as extreme.   Its not like we haven't seen snow totals in the 30's before.  If I make an adjustment it will be to bring the 24-36 past Portland.  I will evaluate that this afternoon.  The 36 + amounts may have to go up there too.  Either way heavy snow and wind is on the way.

ALSO there will be a dry slot.  So wherever that develops amounts will be cut.  Right now I think the Connecticut River Valley is a likely area