Brief Warm Up Tuesday-Watching Weekend Storm

A strong low pressure system and associated cold front are pushing through the Great Lakes this morning.  The cold front produced several tornado warning's last night in Arkansas and Louisiana and blizzard like conditions in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota.  For more national winter weather headlines check out my post over at Tornado Titans.  These will help get temperatures into the low 40's in Southern New England albeit only for today.  Cold arctic air returns for Thursday and Friday and then we watch a potential coastal storm this weekend.

HPC surface analysis 4 am EST
Temperatures are chilly this morning
2 m Temps 5 am EST (image weatherbell)
Plenty of moisture is working towards us
Great Lakes regional radar 558 AM EST
The "warmer" temps are lurking in the Ohio Valley
National 2 m Temps 5 am EST (image weatherbell)
Northern New England should see snow out of this system.  The higher elevations of Central and Southern New England will likely see a burst of wintry precipitation.  850 temps will be below zero for all the way into interior CT and RI so a little ice or sleet before a change to plain rain is also possible across the lower elevations of SNE.
NCEP Ensemble Precipitation Probs
This ensemble based forecast shows that any precip that falls this afternoon will be rain.  Going forward a few hours
NCEP Ensemle Precipitation Probs
I'm not expecting accumulation but when the sun goes down there is a good chance wintry precipitation works into the region.  This is quick hitting- I expect the timing to be 4 PM-9 PM.  

Tomorrow morning the front will clear the coast and strong high pressure in South Central Canada will send cold Arctic air back into New England
06z GFS MSLP Precip valid Wednesday 7 am EST (Image Weatherbell)
A 1042 high pressure center will make temperatures fall into the 20's/low 30's.  By Thursday morning we look like this
06z NAM Hires 2 m temps (image Weatherbell)
Wednesday and Thursday are similar- gusty NW winds but dry.  Overnight lows in the upper teens.

A blizzard in the Midwest will cut up east of the lakes, but will send some energy out towards the Southeast.  In fact we will be looking at a serious severe weather outbreak in the South Thursday/Friday.  This will temporarily raise heights across New England so we rebound to close to 40 on Friday with partly cloudy skies.

The pattern is very active so for the 3rd straight weekend we will be tracking a potential storm.  The EURO ensemble control buys a good storm but the operational is close but no cigar.  The GFS is playing its typical games; it had a storm for a few runs and now has lost it.  That actually makes me feel more confident as the GFS has pulled this trick many times.  By Thursday morning it will likely have the storm again but we are 120-144 hours from the event.  Have a good day.


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