Sunshine tomorrow, Rain Thursday
|Surface Weather Map|
|NAM 18z 51 hr run 500 mb Vorticity, NCEP|
The long range GFS and the GEFS (which has many members and averages the solutions together) develop a secondary low south of Long Island, turning Sean out to sea. This would led to less rain here in Southern New England. The SREF (another multi-member model) likes between 0.25-0.50 inches of rain. This is a good compromise and its what I expect from this storm right now. Tomorrow I will outline amounts as hopefully some agreement occurs between the NAM and the rest of the model suite. The weekend will be dry as high pressure builds in. Another cold front will approach next week but temperatures will be above average for November, with the exception of Friday/Saturday.
|15z SREF 6 hr precip Monday 5 PM|
So tomorrow is nice, temperatures will again climb into the mid 60's. Some showers may break out overnight Wednesday. The heaviest moisture will occur Thursday afternoon. Highs will be in the low 60's on Thursday. Windy but dry conditions move in behind the system and temperatures will be in the upper 40's/low 50's on both Friday and Saturday. The air mass will warm for Sunday and Monday before we may see a cold front next Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Sean is the 18th classified system of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season will wrap up on November 30th, but things can form and persist in December. 2011 becomes the 7th season with at least 18 named storms. The others are 1887, 1933, 1969, 1995, 2005, and 2010. This has been an above average season so far, no doubt. I will have a complete analysis after the season of how 2011 stacks up. However despite the gaudy classified storm total, 2011 actually doesn't belong in the same sentence as those first six seasons. Take a look at these charts I created using data I've collected from the National Hurricane Center.