Damp, Raw Conditions Today

Overnight rain will taper to drizzle and showers this afternoon.  Low pressure developing along a stalled frontal boundary south of New England will bring enhanced rainfall overnight Monday into Tuesday.  Some strong winds will be possible tonight across Coastal Southern New England and the entire region will be breezy tomorrow.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Tuesday evening before we return to drier weather on Wednesday.  Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool to begin the week.

General Overview

A surface warm front is parked in the adjacent SNE coastal waters while a cold front stretches back into the Midwest.  A few waves of low pressure have popped up along this front.

WPC Surface Analysis Monday 5 AM

The regional radar shows rain exiting SNE, but also shows plenty of moisture to our south and west.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop 

There is a sharp temperature divide in the Northeast this AM.  New England temperatures are in the low 50's but in VA/MD/DE temps are near 70.  

RTMA 2 m temperatures Monday 6 AM (image Weatherbell)

Short Range Forecast

Steady rain will taper to a drizzle in SNE as this weather system reloads to our west.  As a new area of low pressure develops along the boundary, precipitation will increase, starting first in Upstate NY.  Here is how this system will evolve at the surface over the next 24 hours.

WPC Surface Fronts, Precipitation Monday 2 PM, 8 PM, Tuesday 2 AM, 8 AM

Low pressure will strengthen as it exits the VA coast and moves Northeast this afternoon and evening.  This low is driving the rainfall in VA right now so we know this storm is loaded with moisture.  Here is the future radar through 11 PM tonight.

09z HRRR 18-hour simulated radar through Monday 11 PM (image Weatherbell)

Those thunderstorms in N PA and E NY sure look like they will be nasty this afternoon.  The SPC currently has this region in a "marginal" risk for severe thunderstorms.  Berkshire and Litchfield Counties will have to keep an eye on this later today.  

SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

East of the Berkshire, the marine layer will limit the chances for any strong thunderstorms but a few rumbles will be possible this evening.  The Northeast wind off the Gulf of Maine will keep max temps well below average today.  It will be warmest in Western MA/CT and coolest at the coast.  

NWS Max Temperatures Monday (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 40's and low 50's.  Although the coastal low will scoot out to sea, the upper-level system will still be hanging around tomorrow.  The radar will be spotty tonight through Tuesday mid-morning.  Steady rain will fill in tomorrow afternoon and early evening, finally ending overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  Temperatures tomorrow will struggle to get out of the 50's.

NWS Max Temperatures Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

That's good for 20 degrees below average for most of the region!

NWS Max Temp Anomaly Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

Cool air will remain after this system departs Wednesday AM.  Max temps Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 60's, but a warming trend will begin.  

-Zack Green