Saturday Morning Weather Discussion

For the second time this November snow is in the forecast.  The 50 degree weather has went away for now.  For those of you who hate snow this isn't welcome, but the 50's may return in the long range.  We are going to have to deal with snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  Until then we are due for a stretch of below normal temperatures.

There could be a snow flurry today; other wise partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the low 40's.    Tonight is mostly clear allowing the heat to escape the surface; the result is lows in the lower 20's.  The coldest valleys where this cold air sinks will drop into the upper teens.  Sunday is more of the same although it will be harder to break 40 tomorrow.  If we could gamble on weather the line would be 38.5 degrees.  Clouds will be on the increase Sunday afternoon so Sunday night will not be as cold.  Temps in the mid to upper 20's.
Valid last night at 7 PM.  850 mb temperature anomaly from Dr. Ryan Maue and Weatherbell
The divide in temperatures clearly shows the cold front.  Here it is on the surface charts 
Valid 7 am this morning.  Cold front has pushed through
Current temperature observations in New England
9 am temperature observations
It will be hard for the temps to get much higher.  Winds will also be an issue today.  Very windy weather with the frontal passage.  Winds will be gusting over 30 mph this afternoon.  Its going to feel a lot colder than it actually is.  Here is the temperature anomaly (departure from average) for tonight at 7 PM (EURO thinking anyway)
7 PM EURO 11/24 00z 24 hr forecast. Notice wind arrows are longer, indicating stronger winds 
Some of you know, others may not that I coach HS football and we have a game Tuesday night.  For awhile I have seen support for some type of event on Tuesday.  After jumping the gun on a possible Thanksgiving week storm I held off for this one but there is agreement that at least several inches of snow will fall.  The event looks to start Tuesday night in time for the commute and the playoff games.  This is not set in stone; it could hold off until overnight Tuesday though I am leaning toward a Tuesday evening start.  

The EURO model is further offshore but it still produces 1-3 inches of snow for most of SNE.  The American GFS model is closer and has a heavier snow event.  Here is the predicted snowfall map from this mornings GFS run
This is valid Thursday morning.  System will be gone Wednesday  night
Too soon for specifics, but leaning towards accumulating snowfall for most.  For people of ski country do take the GFS with a grain of salt.  The EURO has very little precip for the mountains.  It will be interesting to see which solution ultimately verifies.  As usual its probably something in the middle.  

Extended Range
Analog forecast upper air pattern for 6-10 days
December is right around the corner.  What I find amazing is all of the analog dates occurred within a Cold PDO (2006 can be debated; even if we call 2006 a warm PDO its still 9/10 cold PDO).   I suggest searching the PDO and AMO if you want some information on naturally occurring climate patterns.  Anyway this set up screams blocking by Greenland and a trough in the east.  The 2010's and 1960's have shown consistency in producing big east coast snows.  White Christmas odds are high for 2012.

That said everything I have seen on the guidance is that in the 10-14 day range we see a warm up.  I think we see one last warm up in early December before winter kicks in.  Have a good weekend everyone, thanks for reading.


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