Upcoming Weather, Nor'Easter Next Week

One of the toughest things to do in meteorology is get back to the "regular" weather after a big storm.  Many meteorologists chose to study the science due to love of big storms, often from a very young age.  After Hurricane Sandy it was a little boring for a day.  Then the charts picked up something interesting for next week.  On Wednesday morning I buried a nugget about potential snow next week.  Its still on the table, but there are also signals that this storm will run along the coast and into New England, rather than just offshore which is the snow track.  First off the weekend forecast.

Mostly Cloudy, temperature around 50.  Chance of sprinkle today/flurry tonight.  Tonight low 33

Mix of sun and clouds.  High 48. Light wind from Northwest 6-10 mph. Saturday night low 32.

Mix of sun and clouds. High 48.  Steadier Northwest wind of 10-14 mph, gusts to 25. Sunday night low 26.

Mainly sunny, high 41.  Monday night low of 24.

Sunny, high 42.  Low of 29.

The next system will impact the region Wednesday into Thursday.  Right now I favor a rain with a light coating of snow to finish (60 percent) over an all snow solution (30) and a non event (10).  This is by reading the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index).  It is predicted to be trending positive, but not all the way.  So a storm crossing the Cape seems to be a good bet.  
NAO from Climate Prediction Center
The storm has been picked up by both the EURO and GFS models, always a good sign when looking for a storm.  Both model's ensemble members also have a storm clustering around the benchmark.  The Canadian (GEM) model shows a monster Gulf of Mexico-Atlantic Nor'Easter taking shape.  It would appear flooding and high winds will be an issue in Southern New England with snow in the higher elevations.  Here is the EURO ensemble package (Many models with the EURO's physics altered slightly when initializing).  Image from Weatherbell and Dr. Ryan Maue.
Would be a nice track for snowfall
And the GFS operational 
900 mb winds and MSLP. Valid Thursday 2 AM
More to follow on this event, enjoy the sunshine and bundle up.


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