Tuesday Snow Event...How Much?

Temperatures will moderate slightly for Monday, but winds will still gust to 25 mph so another cool and brisk day is on tap to kick off the final week of November.  Things change Tuesday as a generally light snowstorm moves into the region.  Most model guidance is keeping snowfall totals less than 2 inches but it will be falling Tuesday afternoon into the evening.  This will means the high school football playoff games will be played in snow.  Great for the players...and coaches who get to sit in a heated press box but for everyone watching the game dress warm.  

HPC snowfall probability 

The chart above shows less than a 10 percent chance of snowfall exceeding 4 inches in WV and PA and no chance anywhere in Southern New England.  The model support for a big event has gone away.  

EURO temperature forecast- from Dr. Ryan Maue and Weatherbell

This is Tuesday night at 7 PM.  Temperatures will be running in the upper 20's/lower 30's for most.

EURO precip forecast- from Dr. Ryan Maue and Weatherbell

A track slightly north of what is currently being forecast would bring those heavier precipitation bands into Southern New England.  As a meteorologist I find these type of snowstorms very difficult to forecast.  I've seen these little low pressure systems explode when the hit the gulf stream and the 1-3 inches of snow quickly becomes 8-12 (December 13, 2007 for example).  The jet stream will remain split so we don't need to worry about a major nor'easter.  

NAM wind forecast- From Dr Ryan Maue and Weatherbell

Not a heavy wind maker but will be a cold north wind.  So in summary we are looking at 1-3 inches of snow, but the potential for a 3-6 inch storm remains on the table.  Temperatures will be cold enough for snow and winds remain light.  More on the this tomorrow.