UPDATE 320 PM-Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today

 The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for Central and Western New England
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280 (SPC)
The cold front is pushing east and is entering a somewhat favorable environment for thunderstorms.  A strong line of storms has exploded in the Hudson River Valley heading towards Western MA/VT/NW CT
NWS Northeast regional radar loop 248 PM
Damaging wind and isolated severe hail will be the main threats.  Perhaps a micro-burst or two with the warm moist environment that is in place.  The best threat looks to be Springfield to Worcester to Nashua, NH north and west.  Keep an eye to the sky as it may impact areas like the Blackstone Valley and Merrimack Valley.  Boston should be fine. The threat relaxes early this evening (8 PM latest). 

Previous discussion below
On this date 62 years ago the worst tornado in New England history ripped through Worcester, MA.  94 people lost their lives.  A separate tornado ripped through Sutton, Northbridge, and Mendon.  Thankfully the towns were not as densely populated (specifically Northbridge) in 1953 as they are today and no one was killed.  I can't see anything like that happening today but we will face the threat of severe weather, especially outside of 495.
NWS Northeast regional radar through 630 am
As of 630 there was solid rainfall in upstate New York and parts of Northern New England.  Warm and muggy air is present ahead of this cold front heading through Western PA and NY.
WPC 5 am surface analysis
Temperatures are not bad, most of Southern New England is in the mid 60's as of 6 am and climbing
6 am 2 m temperatures
Dew points are also in the 60's
11z HRRR 7 am dew points (image weatherbell)
 Dew points will rise into the mid 60's as the front approaches this afternoon.  Temperatures should rise into the upper 70's and maybe low 80's if we can get some sunshine.   If we do get sunshine the threat if severe weather will increase.  As of now Northern CT and Western MA face the greatest risk of severe storms.
SPC 2 am thunderstorm outlook
The front will clear tonight leaving temperatures around 80 and dew points in the upper 50's tomorrow.  Another threat of thunderstorms exists for Thursday as a another cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
WPC surface forecast Wednesday 8 am
I'll update with any severe weather watches this afternoon.

-Zack Green


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