Welcome Rain Monday

After temperatures in the 80s today high pressure will slide offshore and a front will bring welcome rains to the region overnight tonight into tomorrow.  Warm temperatures return Tuesday with the threat of thunderstorms, although the greatest potential appears to be in Eastern NY and Western MA/NW CT.  As the week progresses a weak tropical system will likely impact the Texas coast.  It will be embedded in the jet stream and may enhance precipitation in our region late this weekend.
WPC surface analysis 11 am, issued 1230 PM
Temperatures as of 1 PM were in the upper 70s/low 80s
RTMA 2 m temperatures 1 PM (image Weatherbell)
Light rain will break out around 10-11 PM from west to east.  Heavy rain will arrive just in time for the lovely Monday morning commute.

12 z Hi res NAM simulated radar 7 am Monday (image Weatherbell)
Anyone who has to use our wonderful interstate system to go to work knows what the combination of Monday, heavy rain, and rush means.  Give yourself extra time.  Here is the projected surface chart at 8 am.
WPC projected surface chart 8 am Monday
 Notice the red warm front to the southwest of New England.  High temperatures tomorrow will struggle to reach 60 in a lot of areas.  Thankfully this is short lived.  Notice the 90's in Central NJ, 50's in MA! Also notice the low in the Gulf of Mexico.
12z Hi Res NAM 2 m temps 2 PM Monday (image Weatherbell)
 The low in the Gulf of Mexico may become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm.  It doesn't really matter because whatever it is it has a deep tropical connection and it is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of Texas that do not need it.  I don't expect a repeat of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 but there could be more serious flooding in SE Texas northward up into Oklahoma.  The disturbance is not terribly impressive at the moment
GOES_east IR rainbow satellite image 145 PM (image NOAA)
But by Tuesday morning it should be near the Texas coast and should be a little better organized.
WPC projected surface chart 8 am Tuesday
Rain in Southern New England ends tomorrow late afternoon/evening.  The heaviest rain is over early afternoon.  1-2 inches of rain is likely regionwide.
48 hour rainfall ending 8 am Tuesday (image WPC)
Now this is where it gets interesting.  The storm prediction center (SPC) suggests a isolated risk of severe weather on Tuesday.  I don't buy it for Southern New England except maybe the far western counties of MA and CT.  I believe the threat is more PA/NY/NJ.
SPC Day 3 severe thunderstorm outlook Tuesday
Wednesday is around 80 and sunny, Thursday a chance of showers, Friday and Saturday look ok.  Sunday could be questionable as the leftovers of the tropical system (probably named Bill) will be close.  I have a very important forecast on Saturday as my cousin Kate is getting married (to a Bill no less).  I told her 83 and partly cloudy so Tropical Storm Bill will not be welcome.  7 day rain totals
WPC 7 day rain totals ending Sunday 7 am
We need it.  Last weeks rain dented the drought but it did not erase it.
US drought monitor issued June 9, 2015 (NOAA)
Sing it Luke

Have a good Sunday

-Zack Green


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