Severe Threat Still Exists

Two rounds of severe weather are likely in Southern New England today.  It does appear as if the first round of thunderstorms will help to limit the potential for the second round.  We are still at risk for frequent lightning, damaging wind, large hail and torrential downpours.  The tornado threat is small, but not zero.  Still if we able to get the sun out all morning/early afternoon there would be a greater chance at a significant twister. 

The regional radar shows two main areas of showers and thunderstorms.  One is moving through Northern New England, the other through NY, PA and heading towards SW New England.
NWS Northeast regional radar loop (908 am)
Short range guidance is indicating this holds together and impacts Southeastern New England by 12-1 PM.   A lot of the action right now is driven by a warm boundary driving northeast into the region.  Out ahead of this the sun is breaking out in Worcester County and even from time to time in Andover. 

GOES_East visible satellite image with surface analysis (NOAA)

The Storm Prediction Center has taken note of this and issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of Southern New England
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341 until 4 PM
This is mainly for round 1 of the thunder.  Looking at all the data, the visible satellite, and high resolution guidance I am beginning to believe this may cause the biggest headache for many.  The straight line wind damage potential for this is real, especially if it evolves as it enters the unstable atmosphere in Southern New England. We shall see what happens in the next few hours.  I will try an update later this PM. 

-Zack Green


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