Thursday Forecast, Andrea Update

Overnight Tropical Storm Andrea strengthened to a 60 MPH Tropical Storm.  That doesn't seem significant but it is; I'll get to that in a moment.  First let's jump into the forecast for today

Thursday Observations/Forecast
Temperatures are in the low to mid 50's
2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)
High pressure is in control for now.  This will depart as our front slowly moves east and a warm front works north along with Andrea
WPC surface analysis 2 PM
That means there will be a mix of sun and clouds today with more sun in the morning hours.  High temperatures are expected to be in the low 70's
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM (image weatherbell)
The precipititation looks to hold off in SNE until around 8 PM tonight.  It will be raining by midnight from Worcester to Hartford and west
06z NAM hires simulated radar Midnight (image weatherbell)
Rain will continue until around 5-6 AM.  Then there will be a clearing as we wait for Andrea (what's left of her).  The dry shot may last all the way until Friday night around 10 PM.  Temperatures South of the MA Pike will be in the low 70's while north of there they will hover around 60.  
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 5 pm Fri (image weatherbell)
Check out this surge of moisture coming up the east coast
06z NAM hires Precipitable Water Sat 2 am (image weatherbell)
Here is the 3 day precipitation totals
WPC day 1-3 precipitation totals
Many have asked about Saturday afternoon/evening.  It will be near 70 for Southern MA and RI/CT with clearing skies so do not cancel those graduation parties.  More on the weekend later.

Tropical Update
As I noted above Andrea is stronger this morning
NHC Tropical Storm Andrea 5 am advisory
Winds are up to 60 mph with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms.  The central pressure is down to 997 mb.  There is a tornado watch for all of South Florida
SPC Tornado Watch 282 
Andrea looks better on satellite this morning as wind shear relaxed overnight.  This will not continue so Andrea is probably as strong as she is going to get wind speed wise
GOES_East Infrared Rainbow Radar 545 am
Today the storm makes landfall in Florida.  By tomorrow morning Andrea is over South Carolina
WPC surface forecast Fri 8 am
At this point check out my last post for more details on the Andrea threat to Southern New England.  One last image...the Canadian model has been superb in forecasting Andrea so far.  Here is the storm Saturday morning...which to me still looks tropical
00z CMC 1000-500 thick/precip mslp Sat 2 am (image weatherbell)
I'll go more in depth this evening, Bruins game kept me up late.  Have a good day


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