Thursday Forecast, Andrea Update

Overnight Tropical Storm Andrea strengthened to a 60 MPH Tropical Storm.  That doesn't seem significant but it is; I'll get to that in a moment.  First let's jump into the forecast for today

Thursday Observations/Forecast
Temperatures are in the low to mid 50's

2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)

High pressure is in control for now.  This will depart as our front slowly moves east and a warm front works north along with Andrea

WPC surface analysis 2 PM

That means there will be a mix of sun and clouds today with more sun in the morning hours.  High temperatures are expected to be in the low 70's

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM (image weatherbell)

The precipititation looks to hold off in SNE until around 8 PM tonight.  It will be raining by midnight from Worcester to Hartford and west

06z NAM hires simulated radar Midnight (image weatherbell)

Friday

Rain will continue until around 5-6 AM.  Then there will be a clearing as we wait for Andrea (what's left of her).  The dry shot may last all the way until Friday night around 10 PM.  Temperatures South of the MA Pike will be in the low 70's while north of there they will hover around 60.  

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 5 pm Fri (image weatherbell)

Check out this surge of moisture coming up the east coast

06z NAM hires Precipitable Water Sat 2 am (image weatherbell)

Here is the 3 day precipitation totals

WPC day 1-3 precipitation totals

Many have asked about Saturday afternoon/evening.  It will be near 70 for Southern MA and RI/CT with clearing skies so do not cancel those graduation parties.  More on the weekend later.

Tropical Update

As I noted above Andrea is stronger this morning

NHC Tropical Storm Andrea 5 am advisory

Winds are up to 60 mph with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms.  The central pressure is down to 997 mb.  There is a tornado watch for all of South Florida

SPC Tornado Watch 282 

Andrea looks better on satellite this morning as wind shear relaxed overnight.  This will not continue so Andrea is probably as strong as she is going to get wind speed wise

GOES_East Infrared Rainbow Radar 545 am

Today the storm makes landfall in Florida.  By tomorrow morning Andrea is over South Carolina

WPC surface forecast Fri 8 am

At this point check out my last post for more details on the Andrea threat to Southern New England.  One last image...the Canadian model has been superb in forecasting Andrea so far.  Here is the storm Saturday morning...which to me still looks tropical

00z CMC 1000-500 thick/precip mslp Sat 2 am (image weatherbell)

I'll go more in depth this evening, Bruins game kept me up late.  Have a good day