Flood Watch Issued for Tonight

The National Weather Service in Taunton, MA has issued a Flood Watch for all of Southern New England tonight through tomorrow evening
NWS Boston Hazards 06/10//13
Rivers are running high, the ground is saturated, and another 1-3 inches of rain is on the way tonight and tomorrow afternoon.  Showers will break out later this afternoon from west to east with the heaviest rain in the overnight hours.  A healthy batch of precipitation is moving northeast this morning
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 528 am
A warm front is lifting north and a surface low pressure is pushing east from Illinois
WPC Surface Analysis 2 am
Southwest CT is the warmest spot in the region this morning.  Most are running in the mid to upper 50's
2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)
Clouds will be increasing throughout the morning; if you get to see the sun this morning enjoy it as that may be the only time until Wednesday.  High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 70's
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 12 PM (image weatherbell)
The NAM hires brings the rain into Southern New England around 3 PM.  This may be a tad early, but the short range guidance is in agreement
06z NAM hires simulated radar 3 PM (image weatherbell)
By early evening the low will be passing through the Great Lakes and the warm front near NYC
WPC surface forecast 8 pm
Through 8 am tomorrow morning 2 inches of rain is forecast to fall
WPC 1 day Precipitation totals
There will be embedded thunderstorms which will have the potential to drop an inch in an hour.  That type of rainfall leads to poor drainage flooding.  Keep in mind the ground is saturated.  I am concerned about some minor flooding of rivers such as the Blackstone in Northbridge.  The Blackstone nearly rose to flood stage on Saturday morning.  Another round of heavy rain tonight will bring the river out of its banks
NWS Blackstone River @ Northbridge 
I realize this shows no flooding in the next 2 days but that is simply not possible with several inches of rain on the way.  The river was not forecast to rise to 8 feet on Saturday either.  Regardless here is the forecast surface chart tomorrow morning
WPC surface forecast 8 am Tues
The simulated radar at the same time
06z NAM hires simulated radar 8 am Tues (image weatherbell)
Temperatures tomorrow will be tricky as it depends on how far north the warm front is able to push and where exactly the showers and thunderstorms re-develop.  Where it gets warm there will be a good chance of a thunderstorm
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Tues (image weatherbell)
Just like today there is a risk of thunderstorms, but only a small chance for severe weather
SPC Day 2 thunderstorm outlook
Although the heaviest rain pushes into Northern New England tomorrow a general 0.25-0.50 inches of rain will fall in Southern New England with higher amounts inside thunderstorms
WPC Day 2 Precipitation Outlook
By Wednesday a classic cold PDO/warm AMO summer 500 mb pattern will be in place.  Temperatures will be in the low 70's in New England, but nationwide the heat will be on
00z EURO 2 m temps Wednesday PM (image weatherbell)
Here is the 500 mb
00z EURO 500 mb heights Weds PM (image weatherbell)
A large ridge is present over the central US with troughs flanking in the NW and NE.  Here is a re-analysis from July 1, 1954 from Plymouth State University Weather Center
500 mb heights July 1, 1954
Now it is not a perfect match but the large ridge with flanking troughs is a pattern seen often during the warm 1950's.  I'll track the rain, have a good Monday.

















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