Quiet Weather Today, More Rain Tomorrow

The commentary in the New England Weather community is about the Summer of 2009.  You may remember that one as the Summer of Rain.  While 2013 has not been as cool as June 2009 to date, after our next storm this weekend many parts of Southern New England will be at or above 10 inches for the month.  A ridge over the center of the US with troughs in the Northwest and Northeast has ruled the weather in June

00z EURO 500 mb heights 8 PM last night (image weatherbell)

Low pressure has been riding the jet across the border states, through the Great Lakes and into New England.   There are embedded short waves within the 500 mb flow so a surface low has developed in Nebraska as well. When there is a trough present heights have lowered and there is energy (conservation of vorticity) available.  Here is the surface chart

WPC surface analysis 5 am

The low in Nebraska will become the dominant cyclone on Friday morning as the boundary approaches the coast and morphs into a Nor'Easter.  However today is an alright day.  

5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)

Most of CT is in the 60's this morning as well as SE MA.  Other areas are in the mid to upper 50's so region wide it is a decent start to Wednesday.  Skies today will vary depending on where exactly one lives in Southern New England.  In Northeastern MA we can't rule out an isolated shower this afternoon.  In Southwestern New England the sun may break out briefly.  

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 PM Wed (image weatherbell)

Connecticut, Rhode Island and SE MA will warm into the mid 70's.  Winds will be gusty out of the northwest today as low pressure departs and high pressure builds in (briefly).  10 m wind speeds are running around 25 mph so we will see gusts to 30 in the Western parts of the region

06z NAM 10 m winds 2 PM (image weatherbell)

Temperatures tonight drop into the low to mid 50's.  Low pressure will approach from the west and it will be in the Ohio Valley tomorrow morning

WPC surface forecast 8 am Thur (image weatherbell)

A major severe weather outbreak is likely in the Mid Atlantic tomorrow while we get plastered with heavy rain again.  We are a day out and already the SPC is placing Washington DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia in a moderate severe weather risk.  

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

Parts of extreme SW and Southern CT may get in on the action.  I see flooding rain as the biggest issue facing the majority of Southern New England however.as the WPC likes 3-5 inches of rain by Saturday morning!

WPC 1-3 day precipitation totals

The system is progressive thankfully, as it will not linger.  However Friday morning a deepening Nor'Easter will be South of Cape Cod

WPC surface forecast 8 am Friday

Rain moves into Western New England by 10 am tomorrow and reaches Worcester/Providence between noon and 1 PM.  Temperatures will be in the low 70's before the rain moves in, then it drops into the 60's.

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 10 am Thur (image weatherbell)

Will have to watch for strong damaging winds over the Cape and Islands.  More later, have a good day!