Heavy Rain Continues This AM

A strong late season Nor'Easter will finally exit Southern New England later this morning but not after pounding the region with heavy rain, high surf, and gusty winds.  The rain is the issue for the majority of us as many rivers are high and some are even in minor flood stage.  The morning commute will be a mess and there is a chance of some left over showers this afternoon.  Saturday is the pick of the weekend but Father's Day will still be nice.

Observations & Short Range Forecast

NWS Boston Radar 529 am

After a brief lull in rain early last night the storm moved offshore and it is really pouring in the bright yetllow band.  As of 555 am this was on the doorstep of Worcester and Springfield so if you are travelling to either of those cities this morning (or anywhere in between) expect a nightmare.  At the very least there will be large puddles and areas prone to flash flooding will do so. Here is the surface chart

WPC surface analysis 2 am

A trailing cold front behind the storm will provide the trigger for any afternoon showers that develop.  Here is a look at the water vapor satellite 

GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite 515 am (NOAA)

The strength of this cold front is impressive as you don't see too many reach the Gulf Coast in June.  The 500 mb pattern remains the same- a ridge over the center of the country with troughs on each coast

06z NAM 500 mb heights, 5 am (image weatherbell)

Embedded short waves have been able to move under this ridge so it is not a repeat of last summer in this part of the country which was hot and dry.  Back in New England winds are sustained around 30 MPH along the South Coast

10 m winds 5 am (NCEP)

Temperatures are raw; low 50's regionwide

2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)

Most of the short range guidance clears the rain by 10 am and the radar trends line up nice with that timing

06z NAM hires simulated radar 10 am (image weatherbell)

It should get to 70 everywhere this afternoon with a few breaks of sun

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 PM (image weatherbell)

As the trailing cold front moves through this afternoon there is a risk of a thunderstorm.  Here is the forecast surface chart

WPC surface analysis 2 PM

The Storm Prediction Center Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook

Best Chance will be between 4-8 PM.  Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 50's.  SE MA and the CT River Valley will be in the upper 50's while the North Adams area will be in the upper 40's.  By tomorrow morning high pressure will be in control over Tennessee and Kentucky

WPC Surface forecast 8 am Saturday

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70's tomorrow with Eastern MA and the CT River Valley being among the warmest spots

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 5 PM Sat (image weatherbell)

The wind will be out of the Northwest and skies will be mostly sunny tomorrow.  

06z NAM cloud cover 2 pm Sat (image weatherbell)

Saturday night temperatures only fall to mid 50's across the interior and will be near 60 along the coast.  The Berkshires will be in the lower 50's.  A frontal system will begin to approach on Sunday.  It will be warm but clouds will be increasing

WPC surface forecast Sun 8 am

By 2 PM temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70's

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Sun 2 PM (image weatherbell)

The simulated radar 

06z NAM hires simulated radar 2 pm Sun (image weatherbell)

The rainfall should hold off until overnight Sunday into Monday AM.  The pattern looks to remain unsettled.  Here is the map of local rivers and their observations/forecast

NOAA New England River Forecasts

Click here to view a river.  That's all for this morning, stay dry and look for the sun this afternoon!