Happy Summer!

Summer officially began at 104 am this morning and there is some hot and humid weather in the forecast.  It does not appear to be a permanent shift towards hot, humid, and relatively dry air.  However the weekend looks great in Southern New England despite a small chance at shower tomorrow afternoon.  Stay south this weekend as the rain will be falling in Northern New England in association with a frontal boundary.

Short Term Forecast/Observations
A cold front is present in Southern Ontario
WPC Surface Analysis 5 am
Behind the front temperatures are very chilly this morning but here in Southern New England most are running in the mid to upper 50's
09z RAP 2 m temp 5 am (image weatherbell)
Here is the current 500 mb set up
06z NAM 500 mb heights 5 am (image weatherbell)
This ridge will continue to spread towards the east coast.  Sunday and Monday look like the best bets to be near 90.  Today however temperatures climb into the low and mid 80's.  Urban centers and valleys are in the mid 80's, rural and higher elevations will be in the lower 80's.
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 pm (image weatherbell)
Overnight low temperatures stay in the 60's which will help set the stage for another warm Saturday although I think most stay below 90.  Springfield and Hartford and the rest of Southwestern New England are the best bets to make a run at 90.  The surface chart for tomorrow shows high pressure still in control
WPC surface forecast 8 am Sat
Here are the afternoon temperatures
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Sat (image weatherbell)
Overnight lows on Saturday will only fall into the mid 60's.  By 8 am it will already be in the 70's again.  By noon we will be in the low to mid 80's and by 2 pm many will be over 90
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Sun (image weatherbell)
The dew points will also rise to near 70.  This will make thunderstorms possible, but will also make conditions oppressive 
06z NAM hires 2 m dew points 2 pm Sun (image weatherbell)
BUT there is not a real trigger for a widespread severe weather outbreak as long as this cold front remains in Canada.  
WPC surface forecast 8 am Sun
Have a good Friday and Happy Summer


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