Not a Repeat; Flood Watch AGAIN
For the third time in a week the National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Flood Watch for all of MA, RI, and CT except for the Cape and Islands
A strong area of low pressure is working across NE Ohio, Western PA, and Western NY State
The visible satellite captures the storm well; heck you can even see breaks of sun in parts of Southern New England
The regional radar shows a well defined vortex and squall line that will reach Philly, Baltimore, and Washington later this morning
This leading edge of the rain will work across the region this morning. I expect Worcester/Providence to be raining by 10 am, Boston by 1130 am. We will stay out of the severe weather, though isolated thunderstorms are certainly possible. I suppose SW CT could see a rogue severe cell.
Here is the current surface chart. Notice the stationary boundary the low will try to follow towards the coast.
Here is the surface forecast for tonight; notice where the WPC believes the low pressure will be
The WPC however is unimpressed with precipitation totals across most of Southern New England. I'm not sure why they believe that as the majority of the guidance I am reviewing shows a general 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts. In fact this morning's NAM hires likes a general 2-4 inches across Western MA, CT, Southern RI and coastal SE MA
Here is one of the short range models total precipitation during the next 18 hours
So that leads me to question this forecast from the WPC. I believe it is underdone
None the less by tomorrow morning the low will morph into a Nor'Easter and move south and east of New England
High pressure dropping into the Great Lakes will help kick this system out and the weekend looks great. More on that later, I hate triple OT.
|NWS Boston Hazards|
|SPC Mesoanalysis 6 am MSLP, radar|
|GOES_East Visible Satellite 645 am|
|NWS Northeast Regional Radar 658 am|
|SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook|
|WPC Surface Analysis 500 AM|
|WPC surface forecast 8 PM|
|06z NAM hires total precip through Sat 2 PM (image weatherbell)|
|11z RAP total precipitation (image weatherbell)|
|WPC 2 day precipitation totals|
|WPC surface forecast 8 am Fri|