Quiet & Dry Next 3 Days

Yesterday's cold front has pushed offshore and high pressure over the Great Lakes has introduced flow out of the northwest dropping temperatures and dew points.  High pressure will remain in control for the next several days before several systems converge on the Northeast for Friday/Saturday.  The potential exists for 2-4 inches of rain this weekend.

Observations
The current surface chart

WPC surface analysis 330 am

With the passage of the front temperatures are cool enough for a jacket is parts of Western MA this morning

2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)

The water vapor image shows the upper level flow into New England.  Air is wrapping around an upper Low in Quebec and around the high pressure in the Great Lakes

GOES_East Water Vapor Sat 515 am (NOAA)

By 11 am most of Southern New England will be over 60.  Exceptions include Northern Worcester County and the Berkshires.  High temperatures should be just around 70 and that will be around 3-4 PM

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 5 pm (image weatherbell)

Skies remain mostly cloud free all the way through the evening

06z NAM simulated Satellite 8 PM (image weatherbell)

Temperatures tonight will be similar to last night.  Berkshire County will be the coldest, in the low 40's.  Most of Eastern Southern New England will be around 50, warmer along the coast.  Here is the forecast surface chart tomorrow morning

WPC surface forecast Wed 8 am

There will be a few more clouds, but temperatures will also be warmer.  The Connecticut River Valley will approach the upper 70's as well as interior SE MA

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 5 pm Wed (image weatherbell)

Tomorrow night is warmer with lows in the mid 50's. There will be more cloud cover tomorrow night which will trap some heat and not let it radiate back to space.  On Thursday morning a disturbance will begin to approach from the Ohio Valley.  

WPC surface forecast Thur 8 am 

It should be in the mid 70's for most of Southern New England on Thursday.  If the rain works into Western New England in the afternoon temperatures will be held down a bit there.  As of now I expect the majority of Thursday to be dry

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Thur 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Most guidance works the precipitation into Western/Northern New England around 8 PM

00z EURO Precip Fri 2 am (image weatherbell)

Tropical Watch

Disorganized low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has been given a 30% chance of developing into a tropical/subtropical storm in the next 48 hours.  While I think development will slowly occur and a weak tropical storm will form, its almost irrelevant to us in the northeast as it will impact our weather regardless.  

NHC Outlook, issued 1 am 

A frontal boundary and associated low waves of low pressure will be moving toward the east coast which will force the low pressure to move up along the east coast.  

WPC surface forecast Friday 8 am

Temperatures Friday will be warmest in SE MA.  Most of the region will be in the upper 60's while SE MA will be in the low 70's.  Here is the surface chart Saturday Morning

WPC surface forecast Sat 8 am

Heavy rain, gusty winds, and some isolated severe weather possible on Saturday as this low morphs into a late season Nor'Easter.  As of now the WPC likes the axis of heavy rain to be mainly in Vermont and Upstate New York

WPC 5 day precipitation outlook

Someone will approach 5-6 inches of rain but it will ultimately depend on the jet stream configuration.  Winds will depend on the ultimate track and strength.  I'll know more tomorrow, have a good Tuesday.