Showers Ending This AM, Will Return This PM

The majority of last's nights rainfall is over but another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.  This will bring an additional 0.5-1.5 inches of rain as any thunderstorm will have the potential to drop over an inch in less than an hour.  For that reason a flood watch remains in effect throughout most of MA.

NWS Boston Hazards 6/11/13

The watch has been dropped in Berkshire County and all of CT.  The Cape and Islands were never under the watch to begin with.  Here is this mornings radar.  One final batch of showers is ready to work into MA from CT/RI

NWS Boston radar 553 am

This batch will lift through Worcester by 7 am and will be off the coast by 8.  A warm front will try to lift through Southern New England.  How far it gets will determine just how warm it gets this afternoon and how strong any thunderstorms will be.  As of 2 am the warm front was south of New England

WPC surface analysis 2 am 

A surface low pressure is moving east from Lake Erie and this will provide the focus for storm development later. If you look closely you can see its in the mid to upper 60's on Long Island while most of Southern New England is around 60 or in the upper 50's.

2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)

A few breaks of sun are not out of the question today.  The surface low in the Great Lakes will not begin to impact the region until 3-4 PM.  The showers and storms will move through Springfield and Hartford around 430, Worcester and Providence 5 PM, Boston 6 PM.  

07z HRRR valid 6 PM (ESRL)

The warmest locations in SNE today will be Southern CT/RI/MA.  The warm front should put those locales on the higher end of temperatures. I like the latest RAP's idea

09z RAP 2 m temps 4 PM (image weatherbell)

The thunderstorm threat is a non-severe risk

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Total rainfall today

WPC Day 1 total precipitation

The latest high resolution NAM comes in much more bullish

06z NAM hires total precip (image weatherbell)

I've been watching the Blackstone River Hydrology Chart since I work right next to it.  You can check local rivers at this website.  With each forecast the river creeps higher and higher.  While I do not expect anything major if one of these thunderstorms drops a quick inch of rain this evening some minor flooding will be possible.

NWS Boston Blackstone River forecast

The last storms will move off the Cape around 11 tonight.  Lows tonight are in the upper 50's in the CT River Valley and Eastern MA and lower to mid 50's elsewhere.  Wednesday looks ok.  I expect several breaks of sun and little to no precipitation.  A few isolated showers will be possible 

WPC surface forecast 8 am 

Temperatures will be near 70 tomorrow with higher temps in CT

06z NAM hires 2 m temp 2 pm Wed (image weatherbell)

That's all for today, stay dry and have a good one.