Muggy with Severe Thunderstorms

Although today will not be as warm as Monday and Tuesday the dew points will remain in the mid to upper 60's across most of Southern New England and thunderstorms will be possible again.  No this is not a recording and the thunderstorms will be more numerous as there is a trigger for the storms today.

SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook

The main threat will be damaging winds ( > 58 mph)

SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook

Short Term Forecast/Observations

Temperatures are off to rocking start with the majority of the region south of Worcester already in the 70's

5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)

The rest of Southern New England is still in the upper 60's.  This morning it is going to be tough to rely on the models as they are forecasting a back door cold front which never really goes well.  The cold front should back across the Maine/NH seacoast during the midday hours.  How far it gets in MA is important as to where the best severe thunderstorm potential develops.  Visible satellite shows some broken clouds over SNE

GOES_East NWS Boston Visible Satellite 545 am

In areas in which the clouds and fog burn off quickly this will also help to destabilize the atmosphere.  Around noon areas south of Rt. 2 in MA should be in the low 80's with dew points in the mid to upper 60's

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 12 PM (image weatherbell)

Dew points around 2-3 PM

06z NAM hires 2 m dew points 3 PM (image weatherbell)

A boundary currently drapped in Northern New England (see current temps and look at Northern Maine) will progress south during the morning and afternoon.  A surface low should develop and park itself near the Southern Maine shore

WPC Surface forecast 2 PM

The front will be pushed back tonight into New Hampshire and Maine.  Lows there will drop to around 60 while Southern New England stays steamy.  An upper level wave will work over New England tomorrow, from the Great Lakes

00z NAM 500 mb heights 8 am Thur (image weatherbell)

The surface reflection of this pattern

WPC Surface forecast 8 am Thur 

With a front trying to attack from the east this sets up another forecasting headache.  One model suggests that it is 85 in Nashua, NH while it is 67 in York, ME

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Thur (image weatherbell)

The SPC is less impressed with the thunderstorm threat tomorrow yet still notes a chance for a severe storm albeit low.

SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook

Thursday evening a stationary boundary will exist near the MA Pike.  

WPC Surface Forecast 8 PM Thur 

The set up for Friday looks more ominous in terms of a severe weather threat.  Low pressure will deepen in New York State as low pressure in the upper levels cuts off.  This will lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With clouds holding the temperatures down Friday looks like it will struggle to get to 80.  That won't matter in Southern New England.  First check out the surface forecast

WPC Surface Forecast 8 am Fri

Here are the dew points at 2 PM

06z NAM hires 2 m dew point 2 PM Fri (image weatherbell)

The total precipitation throughout the next 3 days (through Saturday 8 am) is impressive.

WPC Day 1-3 Precipitation Outlook

This will add to June's rainfall tab

Saturday-Sunday

This cold front will be extremely slow moving.  Saturday morning

WPC Day 3 Surface Forecast Sat 8 am

At the 500 mb level a deep trough will be in place over the east while sharp ridging is present in the west.  This will lead to some record heat out west (though most of the temperature stations out west were built after the warm 1930's and 1950's)

00z EURO 500 mb heights Sat 8 PM (image weatherbell)

Sunday is similar except the front will possibly stall out over the coast.  This will need to be watched as waves of low pressure can sometimes ride along the boundary flooding the areas it sits over.  Here is the weekend rainfall estimate (conservative  at this range)

WPC Day 4-5 Precipitation Forecast

Temperatures each day are in the upper 70's/low 80's.  So while the pattern is similar to summer of 09 in terms of rain it will not match the cold temperatures of that summer.  Have a good day...hump day!