Muggy with Severe Thunderstorms
Although today will not be as warm as Monday and Tuesday the dew points will remain in the mid to upper 60's across most of Southern New England and thunderstorms will be possible again. No this is not a recording and the thunderstorms will be more numerous as there is a trigger for the storms today.
The main threat will be damaging winds ( > 58 mph)
Short Term Forecast/Observations
The rest of Southern New England is still in the upper 60's. This morning it is going to be tough to rely on the models as they are forecasting a back door cold front which never really goes well. The cold front should back across the Maine/NH seacoast during the midday hours. How far it gets in MA is important as to where the best severe thunderstorm potential develops. Visible satellite shows some broken clouds over SNE
In areas in which the clouds and fog burn off quickly this will also help to destabilize the atmosphere. Around noon areas south of Rt. 2 in MA should be in the low 80's with dew points in the mid to upper 60's
Dew points around 2-3 PM
A boundary currently drapped in Northern New England (see current temps and look at Northern Maine) will progress south during the morning and afternoon. A surface low should develop and park itself near the Southern Maine shore
The front will be pushed back tonight into New Hampshire and Maine. Lows there will drop to around 60 while Southern New England stays steamy. An upper level wave will work over New England tomorrow, from the Great Lakes
The surface reflection of this pattern
With a front trying to attack from the east this sets up another forecasting headache. One model suggests that it is 85 in Nashua, NH while it is 67 in York, ME
The SPC is less impressed with the thunderstorm threat tomorrow yet still notes a chance for a severe storm albeit low.
Thursday evening a stationary boundary will exist near the MA Pike.
The set up for Friday looks more ominous in terms of a severe weather threat. Low pressure will deepen in New York State as low pressure in the upper levels cuts off. This will lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With clouds holding the temperatures down Friday looks like it will struggle to get to 80. That won't matter in Southern New England. First check out the surface forecast
Here are the dew points at 2 PM
The total precipitation throughout the next 3 days (through Saturday 8 am) is impressive.
This will add to June's rainfall tab
At the 500 mb level a deep trough will be in place over the east while sharp ridging is present in the west. This will lead to some record heat out west (though most of the temperature stations out west were built after the warm 1930's and 1950's)
Sunday is similar except the front will possibly stall out over the coast. This will need to be watched as waves of low pressure can sometimes ride along the boundary flooding the areas it sits over. Here is the weekend rainfall estimate (conservative at this range)
Temperatures each day are in the upper 70's/low 80's. So while the pattern is similar to summer of 09 in terms of rain it will not match the cold temperatures of that summer. Have a good day...hump day!
|SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook|
|SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook|
Temperatures are off to rocking start with the majority of the region south of Worcester already in the 70's
|5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)|
|GOES_East NWS Boston Visible Satellite 545 am|
|06z NAM hires 2 m temps 12 PM (image weatherbell)|
|06z NAM hires 2 m dew points 3 PM (image weatherbell)|
|WPC Surface forecast 2 PM|
|00z NAM 500 mb heights 8 am Thur (image weatherbell)|
|WPC Surface forecast 8 am Thur|
|06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Thur (image weatherbell)|
|SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook|
|WPC Surface Forecast 8 PM Thur|
|WPC Surface Forecast 8 am Fri|
|06z NAM hires 2 m dew point 2 PM Fri (image weatherbell)|
|WPC Day 1-3 Precipitation Outlook|
This cold front will be extremely slow moving. Saturday morning
|WPC Day 3 Surface Forecast Sat 8 am|
|00z EURO 500 mb heights Sat 8 PM (image weatherbell)|
|WPC Day 4-5 Precipitation Forecast|