Chance of Thunderstorms Today, Tomorrow

A series of fronts will push through New England today and tomorrow which will set off isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Behind these fronts high pressure will build so Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday appear to be excellent days.  Early read on the weekend is that it could be wet at times but there is plenty of time to watch that.

Short Term Forecast/Observations
It is a mild start this morning with many locations already at or near 60
2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)
Here is the surface chart.  Notice the cluster of fronts in the Northeastern region 
WPC surface analysis 5 am
The radar and satellite are both quiet so lets move onto the thunderstorm outlook.  Overall there is good chance of regular summer thunderstorms but a few may be severe, especially across Western Massachusetts and Northern New England
SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook
The main threats will be wind and hail.  This is an isolated threat
SPC Day 1 Wind Outlook
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to soar into the low to mid 80's.  Its been a few weeks since temperatures have been this warm
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 PM (image weatherbell)
The storms should move into Western MA and NW CT between 3-4 PM this afternoon.  It remains to be seen how far east these will push so heads up if you have outdoor plans between 5-7 from Worcester eastward.  Generally speaking these will not produce a lot of precipitation however stronger cells will be able to drop between 0.5-1 inch of rain.  The WPC has on average 0.25 inches
WPC Day 1 Precipitation Outlook
We will have to watch a more organized cluster of storms between 8-10 PM in association with a wave of low pressure along a front.  After that the evening is dry and overnight lows will be in the 60's in most of CT, Southern RI, and Eastern MA (includes Cape and Islands).
WPC Surface Forecast 8 am Tuesday 
Another organized batch of showers and storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon in association with another wave of low pressure.  In fact Tuesday has a greater potential for severe weather.  As of early this morning the meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center have not updated to severe risk, but have mentioned it will be under consideration today.
SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook
If the atmosphere is able to destabilize sufficiently supercells will be possible.  High temperatures in general will be in the upper 70's/low 80's
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 1 pm Tuesday (image weatherbell)
The WPC is also more impressed with the capability of tomorrow's storms, predicting over an inch in some portions of the Northeast
WPC Day 2 precipitation outlook
Tuesday night temperatures will fall to near 50 in Central and Western MA, mid 50's elsewhere.  Wednesday morning high pressure will be in control so if you are planning on heading to the beach this week I would wait until Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.  The surf will be up on Wednesday as our low departs
WPC surface forecast 8 am Wed
Have a good Monday.


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