Back from Vacation

I apologize for not posting the last few days as I've been away down the cape.  It was a great time, deep sea fishing, sea food, the beach, and of course bocce.   The catch of the day was my buddy Corey's 45 inch, 36 lb striper fish that he landed in Cape Cod Bay.  There was a nice thunderstorm on Tuesday night that prompted a Severe Thunderstorm warning as it roared trough Barnstable Harbor.

The Monster
The weather for the next few days will be mostly nice, but at times unsettled depending on where you live.  Most people will stay dry in Southern New England, but there is a threat of a shower or thunderstorm around midday. Tonight will be partly cloudy and temperatures will fall into the 60's.  Friday remains mostly nice but like today there is a slight chance of a shower.  Some models are showing relatively steady rain, however the general set up doesn't support a washout.

This weekend will have increasing chances of rain because a series of low pressure systems will move through the region.  Temperatures will remain normal for August, meaning upper 70's and low 80's.  As of now, Saturday will be humid with a threat of showers after the high pressure area protecting the region moves out to sea and allows the low pressure to work in.  Sunday looks to have a greater chance of thunder than Saturday.

Tropical Storm Emily, NOAA satellite image

Tropical Storm Emily formed over the weekend.  Right now she is centered south of Hispaniola and is threatening to drop life threatening flooding rains on Haiti today and tomorrow.  Unfortunately for Haiti, nearly 98% of the country is deforested.  What that means is that when it rains, there are no trees to absorb some of the water.  Therefore mudslides and flash flooding readily occur.  Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere and events like these keep Haiti in that cycle.  A corrupt government, the devastating earthquake of January 2010, the Hurricanes of 2008, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 continue to ravage this country.

Right now winds are 50 mph.  There are several scenario's that can now play out.  The storm isn't likely to be torn apart by the mountains of the Dominican Republic at this point, but it could be torn apart by the mountains of Cuba if it continues.  It also could move northwest into the Bahama's.  Once it is there the atmospheric and oceanic environment will favor strengthening BUT only IF the core of the tropical cyclone circulation is not disrupted by the mountains.  Tropical forecasting is tricky because of all the variables that go into these storms.  I'm struggling to forecast where the storm will go once it is in the Bahama's.  The storm has moved much further west than many of the models have forecast already.  Therefore I am not ruling out a category 1 Hurricane hit on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  History supports land falling Hurricanes on the Carolina coast in years like this.  If the storm gets as far west as the outer banks, it may curve close enough to Southern New England to give us a jolt.  We will see.  This is not the most likely scenario as of now, the most likely is Emily strengthening in the Bahama's and then moving out to sea.

National Hurricane Center 5-day forecast track/cone of unceratainty
Have a great Thursday


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