Heavy Rain Potential Today

Today is muggy and warm, not a comfortable combination.  Given the moisture in the atmosphere and weak steering currents in the atmosphere, slow moving heavy rain with embedded thunder and lightning is likely across Central and Eastern Massachusetts.  There is a small chance for severe weather, however parameters are only marginally favorable to support supercell thunderstorms.  None the less, starting between 1 and 3 showers and storms should begin to fire from Springfield to Worcester to Bedford.  These will move slow, so areas prone to flash flooding will need to be watched.  Tomorrow will be nice, temperatures in the upper 70's but by tomorrow evening rain will work back into the region.  The rain will remain into Wednesday before this active period New England is in takes a break for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

The tropics are quiet for now as African Dust is limiting thunderstorm development in the deep Atlantic Ocean.  The dust particles limit how high into the atmosphere thunderstorms can grow by suppressing cloud formation (Dunion  et al 2011).  Dust storms also have a dry mid layer which simply said, is terrible for hurricane formation.  The dust storms can also enhance vertical wind shear, which blows the tops of thunderstorms and does not allow the center to become co-located with the convection.  Smaller systems are more vulnerable to this phenomena than larger cyclones.  Here is the link to the NASA study.

Dust limits this type of development

I'll update if needed this afternoon, happy Monday