Beneficial Rain

Today will remain unsettled with beneficial rains, albeit on the weekend.  The lawns need this given the water restrictions facing most of the Blackstone Valley.  Rain will end from west to east early this afternoon and then there should be a few hours of dry weather before another batch of showers moves through later tonight, possibly impacting the Sox-Yanks game.  Tomorrow will be warm and there is a moderate chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.  Otherwise it will be nice with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80's.  Rain will return in earnest on Tuesday night into Wednesday and it could be a steady soaking rain instead of the typical summer showers.  Temperatures will be in the 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The end of the week is looking nice so if you are heading to Foxboro on Thursday for the Patriots preseason opener you will be in luck.  Temperatures at first glance look to be in the upper 70's for Thursday-Saturday.  In the extended forecast things are beginning to change around the country.  There is an accurate article in the Worcester Telegram & Gazette Local Section about the upcoming heart of Hurricane season.  For those who have been following me since I started this blog the article will not be news to you, but for those who haven't you can read my 2011 seasonal forecast here.  The links are apparent to the 1930's and 1950's which featured rough winters and hot summers in the Midwest (sound familar?).

I understand that for the last few years its been common to wonder, "Is this the year New England faces another Hurricane?" and each year the answer has been no.  But the fact remains that New England has yet to face a Hurricane while the Atlantic Ocean remains in its positive phase.  It took 11 years for a Hurricane to strike New England the last time the Atlantic switched from cold to warm.  The storm that broke the trend was a Hurricane in 1936.  The Great Hurricane of 1938 followed two years later, then in 1944 the Great Atlantic Hurricane wrecked havoc again on the region.  In 1954 two more Hurricanes struck (after close calls in 1950) within three weeks of one another.  In 1960 Hurricane Donna completed the buzz saw of New England Hurricane activity.   Hey, maybe our luck will continue but history says it won't and history is overwhelmingly pointing to the East Coast as the place to watch this year.  Here is an article from veteran and expert long range forecaster Joe D'Aleo of weatherbell.com talking about the next 3 months.

As of now, we into year 16 of the warm Atlantic phase.  These tend to last 30-40 years, but there isn't enough data to be completely sure.  My advice is keep an eye out for the next 3 months on the Atlantic Ocean, either through the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov), the Weather Channel, or let me keep an eye on it for you right here at New England Weather.