Backlash rains then Clearing later
|Surface Analysis, NOAA click to enlarge|
For my friends who go north for the weekend...clouds with showers and thunderstorms are the rule not the exception for the beginning of this weekend, but later Saturday and Sunday will be decent days.
As I've continuously posted, the signs are now obvious that Hurricane activity will be increasing over the next 30-45 days. The function of a Hurricane in the earth's natural system to take heat from the tropics and move it to the poles. The Pacific Ocean is the largest basin and provides the majority of this heat transport. When the Pacific, especially the Southwest Pacific (the Typhoon region) "shuts off", another tropical region needs to step up to keep the earth system in relative balance. The Western Pacific is the most active region on the world almost every year (2005, 2010 North Atlantic was) so when it shuts down during the heart of Northern Hemisphere summer, the Atlantic basin ramps up. Latest models for the next month or so are forecasting exactly this. The shorter range models are also forecasting development. There are two main area's to watch at this time. One is an impressive looking, yet disorganized tropical wave moving into the Caribbean Sea. The other is a healthy looking, but in an atmospherically unfavorable environment off the African Coast.
The Caribbean wave is going to be moving into an area that seems favorable for development, especially when its south of Hispaniola to the east of Jamaica. Its not getting much love from the computer models but watch for it to move towards the Cancun area. There is much we do not understand about Hurricane forecasting so each tropical wave needs to be watched whether the models develop it or not. Hurricane models usually develop 5 Hurricanes for every 1 that actually forms.
Keeping that in mind, the wave off of Africa has been consistently developed into a tropical system by the computer models. The models have shown the storm hitting everywhere from the Gulf Coast to Atlantic Canada. That is irrelevant at this point because Hurricane forecasting is inaccurate until 3-5 days out; what is relevant is the fact that many models are developing the wave and doing so consistently. Therefore, its something to watch given the overall atmospheric conditions that are forecast to develop. As of now it reminds me of Hurricane Georges of 1998 in terms of track, based off of the United States long range model.
|Hurricane Georges 1998|