Thursday and Tropics forecast

Originally it appeared that today would be a second straight nice day.   However checking the radar returns showers and thunderstorms are moving from eastern New York into Western New England.  These appear to be weakening but don't be surprised if there are some showers around.  With all the recent rains small streams and creeks are flowing steadily in August, which almost never happens.  Tomorrow there will be another shot of precipitation, but this time its summer thunderstorms instead of a steady soaking rain that belongs in October, not August.  In the long range, a tropical threat is emerging for the Eastern United States.  How significant is TBD.  See below forecast for details (if interested).

Today will be warm, with increasing humidity.  Skies will be partly cloudy and there is a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.  A cold front is moving east and it will stall over New England, keeping weather unsettled for a few days.  Overall, Friday is worse than today.  There could be some sun tomorrow morning, but clouds will thicken by afternoon and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop.  By Saturday afternoon most of the region will be okay, especially at the coast.  Central and Western Southern New England will have a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday, at the moment, have potential to feature severe weather.  Looking at a possible significant weather event around the time of Country Fest (Saturday August 27).  We could see a tropical system but at this point its too early to be concerned and its too early to have any idea where this system will eventually track.  For more, see tropics discussion below.

Tropics Discussion
The tropical wave in the Western Caribbean Sea has become very well organized and the National Hurricane Center is giving the storm a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression.  A Air Force Reserve plane will be investigating the system this afternoon to determine whether or not the system has a closed surface circulation and whether or not winds are strong enough to be classified.  If the system is named it will be Harvey.  The system is small, but waters in the Western Caribbean are very warm so rapid intensification is possible.  Therefore, this is one to watch for the people of Central America.  Seeing a Hurricane before it reaches the Belize coast would not be a surprise.

Tropical Disturbance southwest of Jamaica, image from NOAA
The tropical wave that has caught the attention of the tropical meteorology world is slowly becoming more organized.  The wave has a mid level circulation and a lot of moisture with it, but it has yet to consolidate all the moisture or develop a surface circulation so its still a day or two away from developing into a Tropical Depression.  However, most of the major mid and long range weather models are developing this into a Hurricane down the road.  The models have been consistent in sending this towards the southeast United States.  This is also consistent with climatology in years like these.  Now no one needs to panic because it could hit anywhere from Florida to Maine (or it could hit all like Hurricane Donna in 1960).  This is the storm that could ruin Country Fest.  I'll be following this extensively over the next week or so and will post updates everyday.  The storm must survive the mountainous islands of the Greater Antilles (mainly the Dominican Republic) so worrying about it now is silly, but keeping an eye on it is important.

Hurricane Donna 1960
Behind the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic is another impressive beast off of the African coast.  The lid is beginning to pop and we are not in the most active period of the season.  Seat belts on, this could be a wild ride over the next 45 days.

Also the stat talking about 2011 having the second most billion dollar disasters is a bit of joke.  The total price tag so far is $ 35.6 billion.  2005 saw Hurricanes Dennis ($ 3 billion), Katrina ($ 81.2 billion), Rita ($ 10 billion) and Wilma ($ 21.6 billion) alone.  2004 had Hurricanes Charley ($ 15 billion), Frances ($ 9 billion), Ivan ($ 16 billion) and Jeanne ($ 10 billion) alone.  It is also misleading because the value of everything is higher today than at any point in history.  So OF COURSE there will be more billion dollar disasters.  But, I digress.

Have a great Thirsty Day.


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