Thursday, May 26, 2016

Thursday May 26, 2016 Weather Briefing

I've talked about the Memorial Day weekend several times already so I won't beat a dead horse.  I will update it tomorrow but I like my forecast.  I remain concerned about where exactly rain will set up on Sunday afternoon.  My advice to anyone who lives in Worcester County to the the coast to have a back up plan in case it rains.  This includes Rhode Island.  For more info on the week please watch the video below or see this post.

Short Term Outlook
Some cumulus clouds have developed in Central and Western New England
GOES Northeast visible satellite (image College of Dupage)
As of 4 PM a few sprinkles were present in Southern New England but no organized showers or storms.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 
Guidance suggests some showers/thunder may move across Vermont and New Hampshire this evening.  Some of this activity could reach northern Worcester County.  I think we are good south of the Pike.  Now so far temperatures have behaved exactly as I expected for everywhere but Boston.  Winds are out of the east still and the temperature as of 4 PM is 69.  ZG Weather is a family friendly blog (most of the time) but I have some choice words for the east wind.  Here is the northeast temps as of 3 PM
Northeast RTMA 2 m temps 3 PM (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures tonight only fall to the low 60's.  Similar weather tomorrow.  I'll get to my Saturday/Sunday/Monday update tomorrow.  There is some interesting weather elsewhere in the States that I want to touch on.

National Outlook
Tornadoes have ripped across the Plains the last 4 days.  Here is one photo from Kansas yesterday from storm chaser Ian Livingston
Ian Livingston tweet May 25, 2016 Kansas tornado
Another incredible video can be found here.  This is from Reed Timmer who you may know from his Discovery Channel show.  Now with all severe weather there is some damage and causalities.  However several cities and towns have dodged major bullets as strong tornadoes have passed just outside populated areas.  Today is another chance for severe storms and tornadoes in the Central US.  All of the red boxes are tornado watches.  The blue is a severe thunderstorm watch.
SPC Convective Watches 420 PM EST 5-26-2016
 Let's hope these tornadoes stay away from populated areas again today.  Even though this is tornado alley 4-5 straight days is a little ridiculous.  But a deep trough in the Rockies combining with a eastern ridge is creating unstable conditions.  The flow into the plains is warm and tropical while the Canadian air dropping into the west is cool and dry.  Toss in a wind change with height and we have a good severe weather set up.
18z NAM 500 mb vort 8 PM Thur (image NCEP)
The moisture shows up well on this chart which is precipitable water.  Values over 1" stretch into Kansas and Nebraska
19z HRRR Precipitable Water 5 PM (Image Weatherbell)
Finally the area of low pressure off near the Bahama's is slowly becoming better organized.  I would bet this storm becomes either Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Bonnie this weekend.  Here is the NHC outlook for the next 5 days
NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone formation outlook
  The NHC is giving this a 60% chance of formation within 48 hours and a 70% chance within 5 days.  We aren't looking at a hurricane or anything like that but increased surf on a warm holiday weekend with periods of rain will certainly make an impact.  The low still looks like crap right now
GOES Visible Satellite over 91 L (image NOAA)
Conditions should become more favorable by Saturday.  The Air Force will investigate the system tomorrow afternoon.   Come Tuesday-Wednesday, whatever this system is, may help enhance precipitation in Southern New England.  

Now that I have crashed your browser with all these graphics and GIFs I'll leave it here.  As I said above one more forecast tomorrow for the weekend.  I'll be tracking any potential thunderstorms over the weekend but you know...its a holiday weekend.

-Zack Green

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