Thursday, May 5, 2016

Rain, Wind for Eastern MA

Showers will work west from a coastal storm into Rhode Island and Central Mass but these areas will miss out on the heaviest rain.  A coastal low will come close to Southern New England but it will stay far enough away that steady rains are limited to the Cape, Islands, Plymouth County, Essex County, Suffolk County and up into coastal NH and ME.  Breezy winds inland turn into a stiff wind in these same coastal areas.  As a result temperatures struggle to get out of the mid 40s.  Currently temperatures are in the low to mid 40s
RTMA 2 m temps 9 AM (image Weatherbell)
What you see is what you get in Eastern New England.  Temperatures will climb to the low 50's in Western MA.  Unfortunately those 50's stop right at the Worcester County line and Cmass is left drizzle, occasional showers and upper 40's.  I am encourage about the "warmer" temps to the west because they are heading out way for the weekend.  Here is the satellite image this morning.  This would be perfect in winter
GOES Composite Water Vapor Loop (image NOAA)
Right off the Carolina's is where a surface storm has formed.
WPC Surface Analysis 8 AM 
Despite the offshore track the increase in winds will result in minor coastal flood rises for the evening/overnight high tide.  Coastal flood advisories are up in green
NWS Boston hazards
As for sports this afternoon CMass action looks good to go.  Eastern MA especially south and east will likely face cancellations.  The latest simulated radar for 4 PM.  Rain will begin around 2 PM on the Cape/Islands.
13z HRRR Simulated radar 4 PM (image Weatherbell) 
Of course the best thing to do is watch the radar early this afternoon.  That will let me know if this storm is going to track 25-50 miles west which would bring rain and wind further west.  I wouldn't be shocked to see some steady rain work to 495 between 6-8 PM tonight. Now this may seem amazing given how dreary it has been but we still need some rain.  The situation is not dire by any means but it goes to show how dry its been since last spring overall.
US Drought Monitor May 3, 2016
I'll post later on the extended forecast but just to throw everyone a bone here is the 6-10 day temperature outlook
CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook
This Day in Weather History
I overlooked a devastating EF-5 tornado on May 4, 2007 in Greensburg, KS.  The tornado killed 11 people and caused nearly $300 million in damage.  The local high school was destroyed less than a month before graduation ceremonies. It was part of larger outbreak that extended into May 5.  The storm system responsible for the tornadoes also dropped a lot of rain in the Great Plains and caused widespread urban and river flooding.
SPC reports May 4, 2007

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