Rain to Impact AM Commute

A wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary will slide south of New England this morning.  The steady heavy rain will end by 9 AM but left over showers and drizzle will make the rest of Tuesday rather bleak.  Avoiding a turn to negative town we need the precipitation and this well help green everything up.  That said I wouldn't want to be a high school athletic director trying to juggle field, teams, make up dates etc.

Current Conditions
Here is the northeast regional radar as of 4 AM
NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop
That is a lot of moisture on the radar.  The good news is the system is moving along a good clip.  Here is the northeast surface map
WPC Northeast Surface Analysis 2 AM
This system has a winterish look to it on satellite but you can see how quickly it is moving
GOES_East Water Vapor Loop 315 AM (NOAA)
Moving forward lets time this system out.  At 8 AM all of Southern New England is still raining
7z HRRR simulated radar 8 AM (Image Weatherbell)
We are improving by noon time although some of the rain may linger along the South Coast of RI and the Cape/Islands
7z HRRR simulated radar 12 PM (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures on the short range high resolutions guidance are higher than current forecasts.  This afternoon.  I'm going to blend the NWS forecast of upper 40s/low 50s with the NAM hires and the HRRR forecast of mid to upper 50s and say temps in general rise to about 55 this afternoon.  North of the Pike we can climb higher.
06z NAM Hires 2 m temps 4 PM (image Weatherbell)
An unsettled pattern remains into the weekend.  It will not rain the entire time but clouds and drizzle will be more common than breaks of sun.

Coming later today
1) National Outlook
2) A look back at the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City EF-5 tornado

-Zack Green


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