Next Low Moves West of New England

Thursday's storm tracked offshore.  Friday's storm track closer to the Mid Atlantic coast.  While rain will fall in RI, CT and Western MA the bulk of the moisture will stay in NY, NJ and PA.  Some showers will be around in the afternoon but the heavier showers stay away from Central and Eastern MA until 6-8 PM.  Here is the surface chart as of 11 PM Thursday night
WPC Surface Analysis 11 PM Thursday
That low off of the NC/VA coast will curl towards the NJ coast on Friday,  Here is the projected surface chart as of 2 PM
WPC surface forecast Friday 2 PM
Even though it has been nasty in Southern New England we have dodged a lot of bullets given this current pattern.  There has been measurable rain each day but in general only around an inch.  It has been much worse to our south in the Mid Atlantic.  If today's low tracked closer to the coast and tomorrow's low was a bit further east we might be facing some flooding concerns.  But luck is on our side (even if you don't think so- I get it the gray weather stinks).
Rainfall month to date (excludes Thursday) Image AG web
This doesn't include Thursday's rainfall in Eastern MA but the overall point is this could have been much worse.  Temperatures tomorrow will climb close to 60 around 2-4 PM.
00z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM (image Weatherbell)
I would guess 57-60 in the Blackstone Valley but out towards Springfield the mid 60's are in play.  But as I mentioned above as we get towards evening some rain will work south to north.
00z NAM hires Simulated Radar 8 PM (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures Friday night drop back into the 40's.  More on the weekend in the AM.

-Zack Green


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