Monday, May 23, 2016

Summer? Oh There You Are!

Although temperatures were cooler on Sunday than most of would like most of Southern New England stayed dry.  We stay dry during the daylight hours today as well.  The stationary low to our south will begin to move offshore and out to sea tonight.  As it begins to move there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The threat begins in Western New England later this afternoon/evening and moves east overnight.  This continues Tuesday.  By Wednesday temperatures should soar into the mid 80's.  The long weekend is looking warm.

General Overview
The surface chart shows our storm in the Mid Atlantic and a frontal system in the Midwest
WPC surface analysis 8 AM
High pressure is deflecting the clouds away from Southern New England at the moment.  Here is the visible satellite loop
NOAA GOES_East visible satellite loop
High temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid 70's. In the CT River Valley highs will approach 80 but this is also where thunderstorms could erupt this afternoon.  Heavy rain and lightning will be the primary threats.  Clouds will increase as we approach evening elsewhere.  All in all it will be mild tonight with lows dropping only to the mid 50's.  By tomorrow morning the stalled low will be near New England.  You can see it here on the mid atmosphere chart
12z NAM 500 mb vort, heights 2 AM Tuesday (image NCEP)
  This upper low will bring with it an unstable air mass and chances of precipitation.  The day is not a washout but there will be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Here is the 8 AM surface forecast
WPC Surface forecast 8 AM Tuesday
One high resolution model is showing showers/thunderstorms in South Central MA around noon time.
12z NAM Hires Simulated radar 12 PM Tue (image Weatherbell)
The good news is the upper low moves away Tuesday night.  High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring southwesterly flow into the region.  
WPC Surface forecast Wednesday 8 AM 
High temperature forecast on Wednesday
NWS NDFD maximum temp forecast Wednesday (image Weatherbell)
I expect Thursday to be similar although Western New England will have to watch for some showers.  A warm front will try to lift into the region Thursday night/Friday.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70's on Friday due to some cloud cover and morning showers.  

Now I know many people want to know the forecast for this weekend.  I believe it will be warm with temperatures in the 80's.  I'll have to watch out for showers/thunderstorms but I feel the weekend as a whole will be terrific.  I'll keep an eye on the showers/thunderstorms for tomorrow and this weekend.

-Zack Green

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