High Pressure Takes Control

Rain showers Sunday morning began the transition from low to high pressure.  Monday is a bit of transition day in Southern New England as sunshine is abundant but winds are gusting upwards of 30 MPH.  Still temperatures will climb to the mid to upper 60's this afternoon.  Tonight temperatures drop and frost forms but temperatures rebound again Tuesday to near 70.  Elsewhere in the US severe weather will impact the Southern Plains/Mississippi River Valley this afternoon and evening.

Current Conditions
High pressure is building in Ontario while last week's upper level low slowly departs the Canadian Maritime's.  A secondary front is also sweeping across the region.  Colder air aloft is mixing with the warmer surface to create winds as high 30 MPH.  Here is the surface chart as of 8 AM

WPC Surface Analysis 8 AM

Notice the stationary front (red and blue lines from Kansas to the Carolina's).  That will not be able to make it much further north.  A developing upper level ridge will force this system east, not northeast.

12z NAM 500 mb vort, heights 2 PM Mon (image NCEP)

Although temperatures do climb into the mid 60's today the true summer temperatures stay below the boundary.  Here are the national temperatures today.

NWS NDFD Maximum Temperatures Monday (image Weatherbell)

The cold air aloft, winds from the north and clear skies tonight will let temperatures drop into the low to mid 30's

NWS NDFD Min temps Monday Night-Tuesday AM (image Weatherbell)

These temperatures are capable for a widespread frost tomorrow AM.  The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Frost Advisory for the areas in blue.  Some of those Mother's Day flowers that are left uncovered outside could be killed as a result

NWS Boston Hazards

Winds will lessen tomorrow and temperatures on average will be 70 F.  How quickly the gray and rainy conditions of last week are forgotten.

Severe Weather

A storm system in the Plains will work east.  After the sun breaks out later this afternoon severe thunderstorms capable of hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will affect a large area.  The greatest chance of tornadoes is in the orange.

SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

I'm keeping my eye on NY/PA on Friday for some thunderstorms but probably not in New England.

On This Date in History

On May 9, 1927 a strong tornado killed 98 people in Poplar Bluff, MO.  This makes the tornado the 18th deadliest tornado in US history.  See pictures here