Friday, May 27, 2016

Second Look- Memorial Day Weekend

I get the feeling a lot of people called out of work today judging by the boat traffic on Webster Lake.  If you didn't don't worry the long weekend looks warm and mostly dry through Sunday evening.  There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms each day but these will last only an hour or two.  Guidance has continually over-forecast showers/thunderstorms each day this week so let's hope that continues.   Monday is a different story.  I am fearing a wash out.
Webster Lake, Webster, MA

Short Term Outlook
Showers and thunderstorms are popping up in the Northeast including Southern New England.  These are quickly raining themselves out.  There isn't much to move these showers so they could sit for awhile. A few stronger storms exist in upstate New York
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 
Taking a closer look at Southern New England
RadarScope Pro Boston radar loop
This will continue this evening.  The visible satellite shows less clouds today across SNE
GOES Visble satellite Northeast sector
Now looking at the temperatures the coast continues to suffer from the sea breeze.  It is much warmer inland.  Logan Airport currently reads 65 while it is in the mid to upper 80's outside of I-95.
RTMA 2 m temps 3 PM (image Weatherbell)
A bit early in the season for a day like this.  This is more like a 4th of July day but I will take it.  On Valentine's Day it dropped to -13 in Worcester . Perspective.  So if Worcester gets to 87 tomorrow (and they should) they will be 100 degrees warmer than Valentine's Day.  Most weather stations will read 90 tomorrow except for the Cape/Island and South Coast.
NWS NDFD max temp forecast Saturday (image Weatehrbell)
Why so warm?  A subtropical area of high pressure known as the Bermuda high is in perfect position to send southern air our way.  A front is hung up in the Midwest producing severe weather while we get a early taste of summer.
WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 2 PM
With this air mass some showers/thunderstorms will pop up.  My best guess for storms is South of the Mass Pike and west of 395 before 8 PM and then maybe into the Blackstone Valley around 9-10 PM.

The cold front in Northern New England will try to creep south on Sunday.  It will make some progress but ultimately it will fail and get hung up in Southern NH.
WPC Surface Forecast Sunday 8 AM

Coastal Southern New England will be much cooler than the rest of the region but outside 495 and even perhaps 95 temperatures will be in the mid 80's to 90 in the Springfield/Hartford region
NWS NDFD max temps Sunday (Image Weatherbell)
I am optimistic precipitation stays to north and west during the day Sunday.  Sunday evening into the overnight hours precipitation will begin to fall.

Tricky.  A Tropical Depression has formed in the Southwest Atlantic.  It will track towards the Carolina's and make landfall as a weak Tropical Storm named Bonnie.  Whatever is left of this will likely pump moisture up the coast overnight Sunday into Monday morning.  At the same time a cold front will be approaching from the west.
WPC Surface Forecast Monday 8 AM
 Here is one computer model simulation for 11 AM Monday
18z NAM simulated radar 11 am Monday (Image Tropical Tidbits)
Given that this rain will have roots in the tropics temperatures Monday won't be all that bad.  Most people are in the mid to upper 70's.   Let's hope this can clear out early enough in the afternoon so we can enjoy the day.  Honestly that doesn't seem likely but who knows.  The weather does what it wants.  I'll keep an eye on the radar but I'll watching Monday closely.

Have a safe and Happy Memorial Day weekend.

-Zack Green

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