Winter Like Feel This Weekend With Snow Likely Tuesday

Below average temperatures have worked into Southern New England and they will stick around for the foreseeable future.  Today and this weekend look to be mainly dry but temperatures will struggle to get to 40.  A strong high pressure area is developing in Western Canada which will help turn the winds to the North and Northwest.  There appears to be a good chance of plow able snow on Tuesday.

Current Conditions
Temps

4 am Temperature Analysis (image weatherbell)

Winds

5 am 10 m Wind Speed and Direrction

Locally winds are out of the Northwest.  The surface chart

WPC Surface Analysis 330 AM

A cold front is the leading edge of the real cold air and this will pas through New England tonight.  I cannot rule out a snow/rain shower around dinner time.  However the system is moisture starved.   What it will do is briefly raise heights so temperatures today should get in the low 40's.  

Short Term Forecast

Here is what I expect for temperatures today (click to enlarge)

08z RAP 2 m temp 3 PM (image weatherbell)

Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds.  The window to see some precipitation tonight is 5-9.   After that lows drop to the low to mid 20's.  Saturday is much like today except the wind should be less intense and there will be more sun than clouds.  Sunday is the brightest day of the weekend, though highs will be near 40 with the wind picking up.  An even colder air mass is set to move in Monday.  A lot of areas will struggle to get to 35 and some will not break 32.  

WPC 3 day precipitation forecast

Long Range Discussion

A storm will cut up through the Great Lakes.  This will allow for low pressure to develop along the east coast and track south of New England.  The abnormally cold air mass in place will allow for mostly snow for Northern New England.  In Southern New England it is a bit more tricky as the low will pass close to the Cape if not directly over it.

WPC Tuesday 8 am forecast surface

I like the WPC idea although my sense is the storm is just a bit further off the coast.  The block is still strong in the North Atlantic so I think the main cyclone cutting through the Great Lakes is forced to develop the surface low further south and east.  Here is the 5 day precipitation totals

WPC 5 day precipitation totals

Here is what I think about precipitation type and a first guess at some amounts.

First guess snow/precip Tuesday

Regardless of exact precipitation our rivers are going to cause some problems in the next few weeks.  Chances are growing for a moderate flooding event during the next few weeks.