Burst of Heavy Rain This Afternoon/Evening

A cold front moving east will drop a 0.5"-1" of rain this afternoon and early evening.  Due to its slow passage the cold air behind it will not work into Southern New England until Wednesday night.  The end of the week and the weekend look to be below average for the middle of March.

Headlines/Current Conditions
A Flood Watch is posted for most of Southern New England

NWS Boston Flood Watches

There is a lot of moisture to the west/south

NWS Regional Radar 529 AM

Its easy to see the culprit on the surface chart

WPC Surface Analysis Chart 321 AM

Notice how the cold front stretches into the Gulf of Mexico.  On Satellite the storm looks like this

NOAA GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite (445 AM)

The warm front has completely cleared New England.  Here are the latest temperatures

Regional 2 m Temps 5 am (image weatherbell)

All of this is setting the stage for a mild moist afternoon/evening.

Forecast

Rain pushes into Southwestern New England around 11 am.  It will make its way towards Worcester and Providence between 3-4 PM and reach Boston around 5 PM.  Its a quick burst of rain, but we can expect around an inch in most places.

WPC 2 day precipitation totals

The rain clears the coast by midnight.  There is a chance for some strong wind gusts that could take down isolated tree branches and blow around the trash barrels.  The peak threat is 4-11 PM for these with a strong potential between 5-9 PM.

08z RAP 900 mb winds, ,mslp (image weatherbell)

These are 60-70 mph in orange just a few thousand feet up.  A strong line of convection may be able to mix these to the surface.  Temperatures today will be in the low 50's.  For a period between 11 am - 1 pm we will be near 60 from Worcester County east

08z RAP 2 m Temp 11 am (image weatherbell)

Temperatures will drop into the upper 20's overnight.  Check out the gradient at midnight

06z NAM Hires 2 m temp (image weatherbell)

This will lead to a "flash freeze" overnight as the melted snow and wet roads freeze over rapidly.   High temperatures on Wednesday are in the mid to upper 40's.  By Thursday highs drop into the 30's.  Due to the combination of snow melt and the rain some smaller rivers may overflow their banks.  Here are a few rivers around the region.

Blackstone River @ Northbridge

NO FLOODING FORECAST

Assabet River @ Maynard

MINOR FLOODING FORECAST

Merrimack River @ Lowell

NO FLOODING FORECAST

Blackstone River @ Woonsocket

NO FLOODING FORECAST

For more river forecasts click here.

Not a good start to mud and flood season.