Burst of Heavy Rain This Afternoon/Evening

A cold front moving east will drop a 0.5"-1" of rain this afternoon and early evening.  Due to its slow passage the cold air behind it will not work into Southern New England until Wednesday night.  The end of the week and the weekend look to be below average for the middle of March.

Headlines/Current Conditions
A Flood Watch is posted for most of Southern New England
NWS Boston Flood Watches
There is a lot of moisture to the west/south
NWS Regional Radar 529 AM
Its easy to see the culprit on the surface chart
WPC Surface Analysis Chart 321 AM
Notice how the cold front stretches into the Gulf of Mexico.  On Satellite the storm looks like this
NOAA GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite (445 AM)
The warm front has completely cleared New England.  Here are the latest temperatures
Regional 2 m Temps 5 am (image weatherbell)
All of this is setting the stage for a mild moist afternoon/evening.

Rain pushes into Southwestern New England around 11 am.  It will make its way towards Worcester and Providence between 3-4 PM and reach Boston around 5 PM.  Its a quick burst of rain, but we can expect around an inch in most places.
WPC 2 day precipitation totals
The rain clears the coast by midnight.  There is a chance for some strong wind gusts that could take down isolated tree branches and blow around the trash barrels.  The peak threat is 4-11 PM for these with a strong potential between 5-9 PM.
08z RAP 900 mb winds, ,mslp (image weatherbell)
These are 60-70 mph in orange just a few thousand feet up.  A strong line of convection may be able to mix these to the surface.  Temperatures today will be in the low 50's.  For a period between 11 am - 1 pm we will be near 60 from Worcester County east
08z RAP 2 m Temp 11 am (image weatherbell)
Temperatures will drop into the upper 20's overnight.  Check out the gradient at midnight
06z NAM Hires 2 m temp (image weatherbell)
This will lead to a "flash freeze" overnight as the melted snow and wet roads freeze over rapidly.   High temperatures on Wednesday are in the mid to upper 40's.  By Thursday highs drop into the 30's.  Due to the combination of snow melt and the rain some smaller rivers may overflow their banks.  Here are a few rivers around the region.

Blackstone River @ Northbridge
Assabet River @ Maynard
Merrimack River @ Lowell
Blackstone River @ Woonsocket
For more river forecasts click here.
Not a good start to mud and flood season.


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