Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Mostly Sunny Today, Rain/Snow Showers Possible Tomorrow

Yesterday turned out to a pleasant day in the Blackstone Valley.  Some snow flurries were reported early in the day and I received reports of a heavy snow squall in the Bolton area.   For today you can hit the repeat button.  It will be mostly sunny but there will be a chance of a light shower or flurry.  Tomorrow morning a snow squall may develop during the morning commute.  That could make travel slow on the way to school/work.

Current Weather
The radar is quiet in Southern New England this morning
NWS Northeast regional radar 508 am
The surface map is also quiet
WPC Surface Analysis 330 am
Low pressure is offshore, high pressure to the southwest and the northwest.  The flow leaves the Northeast vulnerable to some pop up rain/snow showers.  The current temperatures look like this
4 am Regional 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
Short Term Forecast
The Jet Stream is still forecast to stay well south of the Northeast
06z NAM 250 mb winds, 2 PM Wed (NCEP)
The reason for this has been the weakening of the polar vortex at the north pole.  This has allowed for the jet stream to drop very far south.  Its a good thing we are getting this in March and not late January
Arctic Oscillation observed and forecast (GFS) (image weatherbell)
Last March the AO was strongly positive so this is a natural correction.  That leaves temperatures today in the upper 40's.  It started colder today than yesterday
00z EURO 2 m max temps Wednesday Afternoon (image weatherbell)
Look how far into the south the cold is.  Record lows will be possible over the next few days all the way to Florida.  Tonight lows drop into the upper 20's
00z EURO 2 m min temps 2-8am Thur (image weatherbell)
Back tracking just a bit here is the 500 mb chart for right now
06z NAM 500 mb heights, vort (NCEP)
Notice Maine where there are a couple of "X's"? Scroll back up and look at Eastern Maine on the radar image.  Now lets look at the 500 mb pattern for tomorrow morning
06z NAM 30 hour 500 mb heights, vort (NCEP)
The trough slides down the coast and will bring with it some snow squalls.  I don't expect much accumulation but a quick inch or two may fall in the higher elevations.  Here is the Weather Prediction Center's two day precipitation forecast
WPC 2 day precipitation totals (WPC)
Expect temps in the upper 40's tomorrow.  The weekend still looks good, although I now see the possibility of rain moving into New England Sunday afternoon.  Unfortunately when we get "mild" temps this time of year rain usually follows.  More on the weekend tomorrow.  Have a good day.

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