Saturday, March 16, 2013

Chilly Weekend, Snow Overnight Monday into Tuesday

The big story is more plow able snow is returning to New England.  It is just in time to delay the start of the spring sports season.  The snow should be significant enough to cancel a lot of schools outside of 128/95.  How many cancelled days is that this year teachers? Maybe the cold will hold on until the end of June when you are still in school.

Current Conditions
A steady snow has broken out across PA this morning
NWS Northeast regional radar
It will pass New England to the south
16z Water Vapor Satellite Loop (GOES_E)
High pressure in Ontario is helping to suppress the Jet Stream and the flow is west to east across the United States instead of a general Southwest to Northeast movement.  Here is a better way to visualize the flow
12z NAM 8am 250 mb winds (NCEP)
And here are the current temperatures
15z 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
With winds currently out of the Northwest
11 am 10 m wind speeds & direction (NCEP)
Forecast and Discussion
High temperatures will peak around 40 this afternoon.  Skies will be mostly cloudy.  Tonight skies clear a bit, especially in Southern New England.  That will allow for low temperatures in the mid 20's.  There will be some rebound during the day Sunday but highs will struggle to get out of the mid to upper 30's.  By Monday look at how the 250 Jet has evolved
12z NAM 250 winds valid Monday 8 am (NCEP)
Streaks are building troughs/ridges in the North Atlantic and Central US.  In other words the flow is becoming more southwest to northeast, rather than the west to east we see today.  That means a burst of snow occurs Monday night into Tuesday morning.  I feel it may mix with sleet and/or rain for a time around and south of the Pike.  In general my map from yesterday is good.
Tuesday snow forecast
As of now I will keep Boston in the 4-8 but I am expecting the lower end there.  The 6-12 plus can probably include the city of Worcester along with the Shrewsbury area.  In Southern Worcester County I expect the higher end of the 4-8.  Here is what last nights EURO showed
00z EURO total snow through 114 hours (image weatherbell)
Its been pretty consistent with this solution.  Its a cold pattern, it wants to snow, so it is going to snow.  That's how I see it, Happy St. Patrick's Day.  PS no offense to my many teacher friends.  Just have some fun

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