Coastal Storm Update

A storm with a long history of dumping snow and causing severe weather is preparing to move into the Atlantic Ocean.  This storm is already the biggest in two years across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and DC will join the party when all is said and done.  Thanks to a little snowstorm in February New England is likely to be excluded from that club but none the less the forecast/discussion.

Current Conditions
Temperatures on average are around 35 degrees in MA/CT/RI.

5 am 2 m Temps (image weatherbell)

The surface chart shows low pressure on the eastern NC coast

WPC Surface Analysis 520 AM

The Northeast radar is picking up a nice slug of moisture in the VA/MD/PA/DE/NJ region

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 558 AM

The water vapor imagery shows an impressive storm about to hit the water

NOAA GOES_E water vapor sat imagery 515 am

That dry slot show in Delaware should fill in as the low center begins to deepen.  It will pull moisture into its center and a dry slot further west will develop.

Forecast

Today is alright in Southern New England.  Temperatures will max around 35 in MA, 40 in RI/CT

10z RAP 2 m T valid 2 PM (image weatherbell)

Skies will remain overcast and winds will steadily increase out of the ENE, then NE.  I cannot rule out isolated rain and snow showers during daylight hours on Wednesday.  However I do not expect them to do much and the bulk of the storm arrives after midnight.  Temperatures at 11 PM

10z RAP 2 m T 11 PM (image weatherbell)

It will be cold enough to support all snow.  Winds at 4 AM

06z NAM 10 m winds (image weatherbell)

Winds at 900 mb, same time

00z NAM Hires 900 mb winds, mslp (image weatherbell)

Combine this with expected snow totals by 7 am tomorrow of 3-6 inches and there will be power outages early.   Here is the NAM high resolution snow totals by 7 am Thursday

00z NAM Hires snow totals (image weatherbell)

There is some disagreement- some models want to shoot the storm south and due east.  Which I am fine with- I do not think that is unreasonable.  In any other normal nor'easter that would greatly lessen the impacts.  This isn't a normal nor'easter, it has a large wind field and it is staring a major block in the face to its Northeast.  There is also energy at the 500 mb level moving through Southern Canada.  Its interaction will drive snow accumulations, not the ocean storm.  NAM by Thursday evening

00z NAM hires snow total Thur 7 PM (image weatherbell)

Thats getting close to 20 inches of snow in RI, Southern Worcester, and Norfolk counties.  Southeastern MA is a wildcard as well.  This lasts into Friday afternoon for some, especially Western MA/CT.  Here is my map.

MY FORECAST

These could go way up in the NAM is correct.  I will update this afternoon, have a good day