Pleasant Wednesday, Winter Makes Comeback

There will be one more day of early spring like weather before old man winter makes a return to New England.  We won't be seeing mid January temperatures but highs will struggle to get to 40.  There are several shots at snow, although nothing major in short to medium range.  There were no problems on the rivers as most crested well below the level that was forecast.

Current Conditions

The main cold front that brought all the precipitation has cleared the coast.

WPC surface analysis 331 EST

The cold air is marked by the cold front running through the Great Lakes.

National 2 m temp analysis 4 am (image weatherbell)

Here is the Jet Stream from last night at 8 PM

00z NAM 250 mb wind 

Notice that the cold is found where the jet stream has dipped.  In New England our flow has been out of the South and Southwest.   Look where we will be tomorrow morning

00z NAM 250 mb wind Thursday 5 am 

Winds will be out of the north and northwest.  Quite a ridge is building in the west which will lead to some record high temperatures in the southwest.

Forecast

09z RAP 2 m temps valid 2 PM (image weatherbell)

Today temperatures max out in the upper 40's.  It wouldn't surprise me to see a 50 degree reading or two.  We remain dry through 72 hours 

WPC 72 hour precip forecast 

Temperatures Thursday and Friday are warmest in Downeast Maine and SE MA.  Tomorrow I think even the Cape and Islands struggle to get to 40

00z EURO 2 m max temps Thursday afternoon (image weatherbell)

Temperatures overnight drop into the mid 20's.  Friday is similar, maybe a degree or two warmer

00z EURO 2 m max temps Friday Afternoon (image weatherbell)

On Saturday a disturbance will pass New England to the south.  There is a lot of cold air just to the north so 1-3 inches of snow is not out of the question.  There also looks to be another shot of snow on Monday/Monday night.  Its a far cry from March 2012.

Earth Physical Sciences Division 

So far March 2013

March to date relative to normal (image weatherbell)

The block shows up nice in the temperature anomaly chart which is part of the reason for the stubborn cold.  Here is one forecast for the rest of the month

GFS 8-16 T anomaly (image weatherbell)

The heat wants to build in the southern US which makes sense, the sun is going to be entering the Northern Hemisphere in a week.  However the signs of the block are still there and that is going to be one heck of temperature gradient.  Severe weather, rain, northern snow are all on the table through March 31 (and beyond?).