Wednesday US Weather Briefing

I'm not sure how much hype the projected tornado outbreak received as I was sitting in the sun (sometimes the casino) in Las Vegas.  After seeing some of the reactions on twitter it seems the event under preformed.  Perhaps these were storm chasers who need these storms for income but in my opinion when there are less tornadoes than forecast that is a good thing.  I'm not sure we can call this a bust.  There was a 10% chance of tornadoes in the plains within 25 miles of a given point.  That's not huge odds.  Here are the storm reports over the 9 AM outlook.

SPC Day1 outlook 4/26/16 9AM with severe reports for 4/26/16

I don't think this is the SPC's best forecast but its not bad.  The threat in the Mid Atlantic never materialized nor the tornado threat.  But lets not act like there wasn't a lot of damage from winds and the tornadoes that did drop from the sky.  For example in Grayson County, TX

Tornado damage via CBS Dallas 

Why were there less tornadoes than anticipated?  The wind shear was not great enough nor was the upper low as strong as it should it have been.  The 500 mb pattern didn't have the classic negative tilt needed for super outbreaks so winds just did not rotate as they climbed the atmosphere as well as they could have.

Today's Threat

This system has progressed east with more severe weather forecast in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast.

SPC Day 1 severe weather outlook

Watch out for Southern Illinois for a sneaky tornado threat today.  The tilt of the upper trough is much greater and the HRRR is showing some supercell potential around 6-7 PM CDT

16z HRRR simulated radar valid 8 PM EST (image Weatherbell)

Elsewhere in the US high pressure is taking control over the northern tier

WPC 11 am surface analysis 

Given this surface chart the US temperatures come as no surprise.  Warm in the Southeast and chilly for late April elsewhere although it is a significant improvement in New England and the Upper Midwest

US 2 m temps 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

Waves of low pressure will continue to move along the cold front today.  Look how well the precipitation forecast lines up with the gradient of warm/cold.  This is a 2 day forecast so Texas and the southeast get their rain as the front finally moves east.

WPC Day 1-2 precipitation forecast 

On This Date

Today is the 5 year anniversary of the 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak that killed over 300 people, many in Alabama.  This deserves it own post.