AccuWeather Extends Forecasts from 45 days to 90 days

(Source)- The leading minds in meteorology say weather forecasts aren’t reliable more than seven to 10 days out. Yet AccuWeather, is — more than ever — defying what science says is the limit of useful weather forecasting.

In recent days, AccuWeather added forecasts extending 90 days into the future on its website, doubling the amount of time into the future for which the State College, Pa.-based company provides predictions.

But valuable forecasts so far into the future simply aren’t possible, many scientists with expertise in weather prediction say. I asked three leading meteorologists, who hold doctoral degrees, what the limit of reliable weather forecasts are and they all responded with essentially the same answer — 7-10 days.

A lot of people in the weather world are crushing AccuWeather today.  All of the employees seem to be toeing the company line because no one has complained publicly but I have to imagine they aren't thrilled with this either.   Meteorology forecasting is capped around 2 weeks because of the Butterfly Effect/Chaos Theory.  At two weeks the differences from the start of any weather model are so great its useless.  They use to tell us in meteorology school that if a butterfly flaps its wings in Africa it could send a Hurricane up the east coast.  However if that butterfly flies 2 feet higher in the air it could send the Hurricane into Mexico.  But whatever if AccuWeather thinks it has figured something out then good for them and we are going to test it.  First up Memorial Day

AccuWeather forecast for Boston 5/30/16- Memorial Day

That east wind is a real killer.  Its not much better in New York City either

AccuWeather forecast for New York City 5/30/16- Memorial Day

Sometimes the weather does suck on Memorial Day so maybe.  It looks like they are forecasting a surface low pressure wave and a cold front along the east coast.  Its not impossible it happened in 2003.  So more importantly is 4th of July, 84 days away.

Boston then New York

AccuWeather 4th of July forecast, Boston

AccuWeather 4th of July forecast New York City

This forecast is nice but I see a few issues.  The winds shift from West to South overnight.  The temperatures do not drop all that much which makes sense with a shift to a S/SW wind.  But on July 5 the temperatures are still around 80.   If AccuWeather will make a call 85 days out then so will I- temperatures in the 80s for the 4th with a chance of thunderstorms for Boston and New York.