Daily Weather Briefing Friday April 29, 2016

(Editors note- I will slowly be adding content to these daily weather briefings until it is a well oiled machine.  Any feedback is appreciated.  I will start with a national outlook and then issue our Southern New England forecast after that before going into some other things)

Yesterday's Recap
We have to go back to Tuesday first.  After strong criticism from some corners of the meteorology world  about lots of hype but not a lot of tornadoes the National Weather Service has finished its storm surveys. They have found that 20 tornadoes formed during the event.  Now they weren't the devastating long track tornadoes like the April 27, 2011 event so in some peoples minds it is a bust.  But is it?  I don't think so. Thursday featured some severe weather in North Carolina and the Texas panhandle (among other places)
SPC 9 AM severe weather outlook for Thursday with actual storm reports
Notice the red dot in Indiana.  That is the days lone tornado report and it shows up just in a regular thunderstorm risk.  That goes to show that no matter the forecast risk one must be vigilant for severe weather anytime there is a chance of thunder.

National Outlook
Let's start with the temperatures.  Seasonable temperatures in New England, summer like in the south and cold in the Rockies under the upper trough.
NWS High temp forecasts Friday (image Weatherbell)

Here is the upper air pattern for 2 PM.  I've circled the 3 main players for national weather today
12z NAM 500 mb vort valid 2 PM EST (Image NCEP)
The circle in the Great Lakes represents a shortwave that will bring showers to the Mid Atlantic tonight.  The circle in Northern Mexico will help feed a surface low pressure system in South Central Texas that will eventually contribute to a line of thunderstorms in Eastern Texas later today.  The third circle is part of system that will drop snow in the Rockies and severe thunderstorms in the Red River Valley.  Here is the severe threat
SPC Day 1 severe weather outlook through Saturday 8 am
There is a 10% tornado chance just like Tuesday (but without the hype)
SPC Day 1 tornado outlook
As low pressure move east across Texas and a warm front lifts north the Red River area looks prime for tornadoes if the upper atmosphere can destabilize.  Here is the simulated radar for 8 PM tonight coast to coast
13z HRRR National simulated radar 8 PM (image Weatherbell)
 Major threats are flash flooding, large hail, wind damage and isolated tornadoes.  It looks pretty nasty in Oklahoma City this evening.  Now most of the snow will fall at higher elevations.  Denver will go from snow to rain back to snow.  In general 4-8" fall in the Rockies
13z HRRR total snowfall through midnight (Image Weatherbell)
Some MLB games to keep an eye on- Giants at Mets, Angels at Rangers and Nationals at Cardinals.  I think the rain will make for a terrible night at Citi Field and may lead to a cancellation.  In Texas the cold front should pass Arlington before the game starts but it could be really nasty for fans arriving early for BP and tailgating.  Early rain will end before the Nats-Cards but another round of rain will move into the area by the middle innings.

Southern New England Forecast
Partly sunny skies today give way to showers in Western MA and CT this evening.  After this passes we clear. High temps are near 60 before dropping to 40 overnight.  Here is the 9 PM radar
14z HRRR simulated radar 9 PM (image Weatherbell)
This is associated with the circle in the Great Lakes in the upper air image above.  It clears for Saturday.  Saturday is the pick of the weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s and mostly sunny skies (50s near the coast).

Where I'd Like To Be Today
Myrtle Beach, SC.  Sunny skies, a slight North wind with temperatures around 80.   Water temperatures are running around 60-62 F but that's no problem for a Northern Boy.

On This Date
A borderline Category 4/5 cyclone made landfall in Bangladesh killing upwards of 200,000 people and causing over a $1 billion in damage.  Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to cyclones because of the shape of its coastline and the ocean floor leading to its coastline.  The slope is gradual rather than steep so storm surge can really grow.
Track of 1991 Cyclone
With a concave coastline shape when the water is funneled toward the coast it has nowhere to go but to pile up onshore. A 20'+ surge flooded the lowlands and killed numerous people who ignored the forecast or did not know about the storm.

-Zack Green

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