Fourth of July BBQ/Party forecast

This is part 3 of my Fourth of July Forecast.  Rather than bore you with talk, here is an hourly forecast through Sunday.  Fireworks forecast here, beach forecast here.  Beach forecast now includes Lakes forecast.  I'll update this with Monday's forecast in detail tomorrow.

Click on image to enlarge

Comments...Showers possible for a time tomorrow afternoon, but nothing to cancel plans.  Firework celebration and cookouts should go off just fine.  Sunday on the other hand will feature a potential potent round of showers and thunderstorms.  These may make folks having a party have to make back up indoor plans for short periods of time.  Not a wash out, humid.   Not everyone will see storms; that is why I also have listed sun and clouds.  Monday looks nice, 80 degrees and mostly sunny.  

Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall this morning in Mexico.  Its lucky the storm made landfall when it did; it looked ready to rapidly intensify into a Hurricane.  Rains will cause flooding in Mexico, however hopefully the mountains rip apart the circulation and the storm dissipates quickly.  Happy 4th of July all.

Fourth of July Beach Forecast

This is Part 2 of my 4th of July Forecast. Part 1 is the firework times/forecast.  See here.

Overview: Saturday is the best day to head to the beach as showers and thunderstorms will be present in the afternoon on both Friday and Sunday.  Temperatures will be cooler at the coast, but the presence of a West wind will keep sea breezes at bay.

South Rhode Island Coast
Friday- The chance of a thunderstorm is small and limited to a brief period between 12 PM and 6 PM.  Otherwise partly cloudy skies with a high of 74.  Waves will 1-2 ft and winds shift throughout the day from the North (offshore) to the South (onshore).  The sea breeze will act to weaken any thunderstorm's that do form.

Saturday- Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70's, call it 76.  Winds from the SSW (south south west)  at 10 mph.  Some of the winds could blow around a beach umbrella so just make sure they are secure.  Waves around 1 ft.

Sunday- Thunderstorm's likely by late afternoon/early evening, but not before a fairly nice day at the beach.  High of 76, a bit more humid so being at coast will help keep yourself cool.   Winds again from the SSW at 10-15 mph so keep any food covered, nothing tastes worse than potato chips and sand.  Waves 1-2 ft.

Monday- Another nice day, as of now.  High of 74, mostly sunny with winds shifting NW to SW around 10 mph.  Waves 1-2 ft.  UV index HIGH all weekend, so bring your protection.

Cape Cod/Islands

Friday- Little chance of any showers of thunderstorms holding together all the way to the Cape.  Cooler here as a North wind keeps temperatures in the low 70's on the Bayside and upper 60's on the ocean side.  Waves of 1 ft, winds around 12 mph.

Saturday- Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70's, call it 75.  Winds from the S at 10 mph.  Waves around 1 ft.

Sunday- Thunderstorm's likely by late afternoon/early evening, but not before a fairly nice day at the beach.  High of 80, a bit more humid so being at coast will help keep yourself cool.   Winds again from the SSW at 10-15 mph so keep any food covered, nothing taste worse than potato chips and sand.  Waves 1-2 ft.  

Monday- Looking very nice down the Cape.  Winds will be around 10-15 mph, high of 80 and mostly sunny.

South Shore

Friday- The chance of a thunderstorm is small and limited to a brief period between 12 PM and 6 PM.  Otherwise partly cloudy skies with a high of 73.  Waves will be 1 ft and winds from the north.  North wind will keep the coast cool.

Saturday- Mostly sunny with highs in the low 70's, 73.  Party cloudy, winds shift to the south with an onshore breeze of 12 mph.  The onshore breeze really keeps things cool as ocean temps are not quite at their peak yet.

Sunday- Thunderstorm's likely by late afternoon/early evening, but not before a fairly nice day at the beach.  High of 76, a bit more humid so being at coast will help keep yourself cool.   Winds again from the SW at 10-15 mph so keep any food covered, nothing taste worse than potato chips and sand.  Waves 1 ft.

Monday- Another nice day, as of now.  High of 74, mostly sunny with winds SW around 10 mph.  Waves 1-2 ft.  UV index HIGH all weekend, so bring your protection.

North Shore

Friday- Maybe the best day of the weekend for the North Shore.  High of 75 with a slight chance of rain.  Northwest wind will decrease during the day waves 1 ft.

Saturday- With a SE wind off the water highs at the coast will struggle to get to the 70's.  Still, mostly sunny skies with waves of 1 ft.

Sunday- Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, not before a high of 73 at the coast with 2-4 ft waves.  South wind around 15 mph.  

Monday- Winds decrease to around 10 mph, waves 1-2 ft, high of 70. Mostly Sunny skies

Even though coastal temperatures will be down, it will be nice for many as highs inland will approach the upper 80's and low 90's.

Hampton Beach

Friday-Monday Same general idea as North Shore.  

Lakes Forecast
Low 50's overnight today in NH and ME.  Friday highs in the 70's, moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly Cloudy skies with early fog.  Friday night is mainly clear, temperatures dropping into the upper 40's for most locations.  Saturday temperatures rip into the low to mid 80's with mostly sunny to partly sunny skies.  Increasing clouds and increasing rain chance overnight Saturday.  Temperatures holding in the low 60's.  Sunday warm with a threat of thunderstorms.  Scattered in variety, temperatures again low to mid 80's.  Sunday night has a chance of showers, temperatures falling to 61 before rebounding on Monday.  Summertime pop up showers and thunderstorms likely on the 4th.

Fireworks forecast and Times for select locations

Only two weather extremes will cancel a firework display; too wet or too dry.  Other parts of the country will have to worry about the too wet or too dry part but not New England.  A plethora of cities and towns in the region will have firework displays this weekend.  A Monday 4^th of July is the best day for the holiday (IMO).  Here’s the forecast for each night and start time/location.

Friday July 1

Northbridge 9 PM Lasalle Field

 Worcester 930 PM Belmont Hill

South Yarmouth 8 PM Dennis-Yarmouth High School

Despite a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm between 2-8 pm on Friday, by the time the Northbridge and Worcester festivities kickoff temperatures will be in the low 70’s and scattered clouds will dot the skyline alongside the fireworks.  Winds will be West North West at around 10 mph.   If staying out late Friday night, keep a jacket handy as clearing skies will enable temperatures to dip to 61.

Saturday July 2

Spencer 9 PM Zukas Hilltop

Auburn 930 PM Lamanski Park

Methuen 930 PM Nicholson Field

Despite partly cloudy skies Saturday Night the viewing will not be bad as these clouds stay fairly high in the atmosphere.   Nice night as temperatures will be 71-75 during the fireworks before falling to a low of 67 for Saturday Night.  Dew points in the mid 60’s will make it feel slightly uncomfortable for most, especially the young and old.

Sunday July 3

Gloucester 930 PM Stage Fort Park

Milford 9 PM Plains Park

Millbury 9 PM The Swamp (Windle Field)

Webster 9 PM Memorial Beach

Mashpee 9 New Seabury Golf Course

Salisbury 10 PM Barge off Salisbury Beach

It will be more humid on Sunday; especially early with dew points reaching the upper 60’s which is pretty uncomfortable.  A boundary moving through will set off isolated showers and thunderstorms, but as night falls the skies should clear.  The elderly, young children and people with respiratory conditions will be most affected.    Temps will hold steady in the mid to upper 70’s before falling to the mid to upper 60’s for lows.  The late start for these fireworks should make most of them ok.

Monday July 4

Lowell 8 PM LeLacheur Park

Lowell 9 PM Riverbank

Millbury 9 PM Windle Field

Nantucket 9 PM Barge off Jetties Beach

Martha’s Vineyard 9 PM Edgartown, Barge off Chappaquiddick Beach

Plymouth 930 PM Barge in Plymouth Cove

Boston 1030 PM Charles River

Scattered thunderstoms during the day will lead to a warm night.  Temperatures in the 70’s will make things comfortable well into the night, as long as the thunderstorms have moved past.  Good sky cover, less than 50% clouds and dew points in the low 60’s.  This is a little past the reliable forecast range as of today, but this is the preliminary call.  

This list is not all fireworks displays, just a sample.  A complete list can be found here.

Beaches preview later

Showers/T-storms Tonight & Tomorrow, First Tropical Storm of Season forms

A line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through Central New York right now.  This line has prompted three severe thunderstorm warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.  Although I don't expect the line to be severe tonight, a strong thunderstorm with frequent lightning and heavy downpours is likely so shut the windows in your cars tonight.  Up to a tenth of an inch of rain may fall from these in a short period of time.  Northern Worcester County  has the highest chance of seeing a severe storm tonight.

Tomorrow will be a day of clearing, as left over showers and thunderstorms should be out of the area by 10 am. Dew points will be falling as the day progresses so it will feel better.  Thursday and Friday will be warm, but comfortable before things warm up just in time for the 4th.  More detailed 4th forecast tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico today, becoming the first named Tropical Storm of the 2011 Atlantic Season.  I have 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season and one tropical storm formed in June in 2008, 1999, and 1996, my last 3 analog years.  Anyway nothing has made my thinking change about the upcoming season and I will be here to keep you on alert.

Its not terribly well organized, but if it can consolidate its thunderstorm action it has a chance to develop in to a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane before moving onshore in Mexico. Tropical storm warnings posted for Mexican coast

Humid Weather Tomorrow

Although tonight will be a nice night, humid air returns tomorrow as dew points rise into the mid 60's.  See post here for explanation of dew points and humidity.  A dew point in the low to mid 60's will be felt by most people, but the elderly and young children are the ones who will be made most uncomfortable by the humidity.  The day will be pleasant, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 80's. Tomorrow night will be a muggy night as clouds increase.  Temperatures fall to the mid 60's but showers and thunderstorms will hold off until around 4 or 5 AM Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will feature a bout of rain early in the morning and then another band of showers and thunderstorms will move through later Wednesday.  Isolated showers may break out at any time between the two main threats.  Temperatures will be warm, reaching the upper 70's and low 80's.  Low 80's in southern Connecticut, 80 in central Massachusetts and upper 70's North Shore.  The good news is that after Wednesday it looks to be smooth sailing for the 4th of July weekend.  Warm, mostly sunny days look to be the pattern from Thursday through Monday.

In a tropical update the disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche is getting better organized so NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the system tomorrow afternoon if the system continues to develop.  Conditions will become more favorable tomorrow so it would not be surprising to see a Tropical Depression form tomorrow.  The image above is the water vapor satellite picture of the disturbance.  Its not well organized but strong winds to the north of the system are forecast to lessen tomorrow.  Those strong upper level winds limit the thunderstorms ability to rise vertically and also works against establishing a low level center, needed for tropical cyclone development.  When this "wind shear" as its called relaxes, thunderstorms can stretch high in the atmosphere and become very strong and a closed counterclockwise circulation forms at the surface.

The Tuck Rule Game; The Snowfall and Call that launched a Dynasty

The NFL is my favorite sports league.  This lockout has been getting on my nerves and I need my NFL fix.  What better way than to talk about January 19, 2002?  Up until this point winter 2001-02 was off to a slow start.  Temperatures climbed into the mid 70's in early December that year.   Snowfall was non existent across Southern New England for much of the season.  But as the New England Patriots were planning to take on the Oakland Raiders in the final game at Foxboro Stadium, an area of low pressure tracked to south of New England, drawing down cold arctic air and blanketing the region with snowfall.  The game took place on a Saturday Night and a national TV audience watched one of the greatest, most controversial games in NFL history in a heavy snowfall.  From the snow to the Tuck Rule play to Adam Vinatieri's 45 yard kick, this game had it all except for Oakland Raiders fans.

courtesy of AP

Oakland was the 3 seed as the AFC West champion, while the Patriots were the 2 seed as the AFC East champion.  The two squads did not meet in the regular season.  Despite the moaning and groaning Oakland fans feel about this game, Patriots fans had just as big of a gripe in the 1976 playoffs.  The Raiders were 13-1 (14 game season at this point) and the Patriots were 11-3, the best record they had until 2003.  However Oakland's lone loss was 48-17 beatdown by the Patriots.  The Patriots led, 21-17 late in the fourth quarter when Patriots defensive lineman Ray "Sugar Bear" Hamiliton sacked Kenny Stabler on 3rd and long.  However, a roughing the passer penalty was called.  Replays showed no illegal contact and Stabler later admitted the refs helped him out with that call.  Oakland went on to win the game and Super Bowl IX, crushing the Vikings 32-14.  John Madden was the coach of this Raiders team, believe it or not.

Oakland was led by Rich Gannon, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, and Charles Woodson.  New England was led by Tom Brady, Tedy Bruschi, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, and Troy Brown.  Oakland grabbed a 7-0 halftime lead and extended that lead to 13-3 in the 4th quarter.  Tom Brady, providing a glimpse of what he would become, led the Patriots down field and scored a rushing touchdown to narrow the deficit to 13-10.  The Patriots would get the ball back and just after the 2 minutes warning, Woodson appeared to sack Brady and cause him to fumble, which Oakland recovered.  The game appeared over until referee Walt Coleman correctly ruled that Brady's arm was moving forward in a "tucking" motion and therefore the pass was incomplete.  An odd rule to say the least, many NFL fans were unaware of the rule.

Never-the-less the Patriots moved into field goal position.  However with 5 inches of snow on the field, a fierce wind howling and low visibility, a 45 yard field goal was no easy kick.  Vinatieri nailed the kick, considered the greatest kick in NFL history by Michael Silver of Yahoo Sports (as well as many other experts).  The Patriots won the toss in overtime, moved Vinatieri in position again, this time a much easier 23 yard field goal to win the game and send the Patriots to the AFC championship game for the third time in their history.  The Patriots would upset the Steelers, 24-17 and then the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI to capture their first championship that would launch a dynasty.  Oakland went into a tailspin, despite making Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003.  They were crushed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48-21 and have not had a winning season since.  Head coach Jon "Chucky" Gruden left the Raiders after the tuck rule game to coach Tampa ironically.  Woodson, Brady's teamate at Michigan would later win a Super Bowl ring with the Green Bay Packers.

thanks to Raymond C Martin

By New England standards the snowfall was not heavy.  On average 6-10 inches fell in the region with the higher amounts along the south coast.  The snowfall was the most significant event of the 2001-02 winter season.  Boston saw only 13.4 inches of snow that winter, Providence 13.8, and Worcester 30.1.  All of these were well below the average winter season.  Nearly 50% of the Boston and Providence values came from this storm.  Boston checked in with 6 inches, though closer to 10 fell in Foxboro.  The Patriots are credited with keeping people off the roads as many stayed home to watch the game and what a game it was.

Thanks to raymond c martin

Thanks to National Weather Service for snowfall totals and Raymond Martin's winter storm page for images

Good Looking Week Ahead

The weather funk of last week has been broken.  The upper level low pressure center and associated fronts moved by over the weekend with a nasty little thunderstorm on Saturday night.  It put some graduation party celebrations on hold for a bit but at least the dreary dull gray weather has passed.  Today will be party cloudy and warm.  Temperatures around the region are in the low to mid 80's.  Mid 80's in CT, say 85 in Hartford while southern Worcester County sees a high of 83.  Cooler in Boston with a high of 80, but 84 in Lowell and areas north and west of the city.  There is a slight chance of a light rain shower this afternoon (20 %).

Tonight is clear, lows drop to lower 60's leading into a beautiful Tuesday.  Mostly sunny with a high of 85 for most of the region.  Boston will have a high of 82,  Hartford will have a high of 87, and Providence a high of 83. Winds will be light, blowing from the south at 5 mph.  By Tuesday night a front will be approaching that will set off showers and thunderstorms overnight and those will continue into Wednesday morning.  Once these are gone the rest of the week and the weekend look great.  The temperatures will average 80 degrees for Wednesday-Sunday.

Tropic Watch
The first storm of the season may form this week.  Its currently near the Yucatan and not very well organized but as it drifts west over the next few days things will become more favorable and Tropical Storm Arlene may develop.  No threat to our region and probably not going to be a threat to the United States but the hope is for the storm to drop some more rain on Texas and help those folks out.