Election Day Weather

A cold front sweeping across the central US has pushed high pressure offshore.  Winds have shifted from the north to the southwest.  Temperatures will respond by climbing into the mid 60's!
WPC Surface Forecast Tuesday 1 PM (image Weatherbell)
Here is the forecast max temperatures via the National Weather Service
NWS maximum temps Tuesday (image Weatherbell)
Clouds increase by this evening keeping overnight lows in the 40's.  That central cold front will push east tomorrow bringing some showers with it.  Heaviest rain looks to be in the early afternoon hours.  Total rainfall will be light.  Seasonable weather returns for Thursday and Friday.  Saturday is looking cool with max temps only in the low 40's.

Election Day Fun
We finally made it to election day.  I decided to pull up the average temperatures for winter following A) All elections since 1936
B) All Dem wins
C) All GOP wins
D) When White House Changes party
E) When White House remains same party

First up the average temperature from December 1 to Feb 28 (meteorological winter) for all election years since 1936.
NOAA/NDFD temperature anomaly Dec-Feb election years via ESRL
So on average we have a cooler than normal/normal winter temperature wise in the winters following presidential elections.  I think this is a natural reaction to all the hot air and hot takes that come out during the campaigns.  Now lets break it down by party.  We will go ladies first out of respect for the front runner and the incumbent party.
NOAA/NDFD temperature anomaly Dec-Feb dem wins via ESRL
It is slightly warmer in the Southeast and a little less cold in the northern plains but this is largely the same as all election years.  Onto the GOP
NOAA/NDFD temperature anomaly Dec-Feb GOP wins via ESRL
This is also very similar.  It turns out mother nature is rather independent when it comes to the winter after an election.   So what happens when the White House changes parties?
NOAA/NDFD temperature anomaly Dec-Feb election years incumbent loses via ESRL
Now we are talking!  A cold eastern US and a warm Western US is perfect for winter lovers.  Now on the other hand here is what happens when the incumbent party wins.
NOAA/NDFD temperature anomaly Dec-Feb election years incumbent party wins via ESRL
A eastern US blowtorch if Hilary wins although the west would love it.  If you want a warm winter vote for Hilary.  If you want a cold winter vote for Donald.   I'm not sure what happens if you vote for Gary Johnson but I wouldn't want to risk it.

Whatever you do go out and vote and enjoy the nice weather.

-Zack Green


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