Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Afternoon Showers Thursday

A weak cold front and associated low pressure will bring some showers to New England on Thursday.  The heaviest rain will fall north of the MA Pike where up a quarter inch of rain will fall.  Further north in VT, NH, and ME 1-2" will fall.  South of the MA Pike around a tenth of an inch will fall.  The greater purpose of the cold front is to bring a return of below average temperatures this weekend.  On Friday the wind will be strong out of the northwest.  It lessens on Saturday but it will still be breezy.

General Overview
The forecast surface chart for 8 PM shows tropical high pressure in the southeast and polar high pressure in Canada.  The front can be found at the boundary between these air masses.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 8 PM
Cleveland should be okay for most of Game 7.  Here is the Great Lakes region radar.  If the game drags on (always a possibility) some rain may get in there around midnight,
NWS Great Lakes Regional Radar 
It was quite warm today as west winds brought above average temperatures to the region.  Boston, Providence and several other inland locations hit 70.   This air mass is also in place in the Ohio Valley.  It will be mild for the Cubs and Indians with game time temps in the mid 60's,   In the 1997 World Series it snowed in Cleveland before game 4.
Mike Hargrove 1997 World Series Game 4.  Game time temps were 35 with a 15 mph wind off Lake Erie (image SI.com)
Nothing to worry about tonight,  Here is the US temperatures.  You can see the warmth in the Eastern US east of the frontal boundary.
US temperatures 6 PM (image Weatherbell)
Short Term Forecast
Low pressure pushes the front east overnight.  Overnight lows are mild only dropping into the low 50's.  Clouds will increase overnight.
NWS minimum temps Thursday AM (Image Weatherbell)
The low moves into New England around 8 AM tomorrow.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thursday 8 AM 
Precipitation will be confined to New York/PA and Northern New England tomorrow morning however.  Here is the 10 AM simulated radar for Southern New England.
20z HRRR Simulated Radar Thursday 10 AM (image Weatherbell)
It will be warm in the region until that rain starts to fall.  Max temperatures will be in the mid 60's to low 70's (South Coastal New England).
NWS Max temps Thursday (image Weatherbell)
The rain moves in around 130-2 PM.  Here is the 3 PM projected radar.  This isn't going to be exact but it gives a good general idea.
18z HRRRX Simulated Radar Thursday 3 PM (image Weatherbell)
Rain is gone by 5 PM and drying northerly winds arrive.  Temperatures will be slow to drop as we await the main Canadian air overnight Thursday into Friday.  Minimum temps will be in the low 40's.  Max day time temps Friday will be around 50.  Winds will gust out of the in the mid 20's.  Friday night is cold as temps drop into the upper 20's/low 30's.  The wind drops a bit Saturday as temps rebound to be once again near 50 with mostly sunny skies.

-Zack Green

No comments:

Post a Comment

National Weather Service Issues Winter Storm Warning

T he National Weather Service Boston office has issued a * Winter Storm Warning * for most of Southern New England, except for the South Sou...