Snow Returns for Early February

Early February looks to continue the cold and snow theme of Winter 2013-14.  We have several shots at snow in the next week.  One is minor, one is moderate, one is next weekend so I'll hold off on impact.

Short Term Forecast

Temperatures are in the 40's across much of MA/RI/CT this afternoon.  It feels great after the stretch of teens and 20's this past week

2 m temps 3 PM (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 30's.  The generally overcast conditions will persist into Sunday.  Some isolated showers are possible as a cold front pushes off the Northeast coast

WPC surface forecast Sun 7 am

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 40's tomorrow afternoon before the front passes.  The Bronco's sure seem to have a lucky horseshoe this year as it will be around 40 at kickoff for the Super Bowl.  

18z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Sun (image Weatherbell)

Temperatures will continue to fall into Monday.  High temps will likely occur after Midnight when temps should still be around 32.  Monday afternoon temps will be around 27-28.  A weak area of low pressure will develop along the front in the Southeast Sunday evening/Monday morning and slide well south and east of New England.  

18z NAM 1000-500 thickness, mslp, precip 1 PM Mon (image NCEP)

This will drop a decent amount of snow in the Mid Atlantic.  I see a general 4-8 with isolated higher amounts in VA, MD, PA, S NJ, and DE.  I don't see much in Southern New England.  Here is my expectation

02.03.14 Snow Expectation

Light snow moves in CT around 9-10 AM.  Most will fall between 11 am - 4 pm.  Monday night temps are upper teens/low 20's.  Tuesday is mostly sunny with temps in the mid 30's.  That brings us to storm #2.  Here is the upper level support Tuesday 7 PM

18z GFS 500 mb vorticity Tues 7 PM (image NCEP)

This will drive a surface low northeast towards the Great Lakes and then re-develop a low south of Long Island

WPC Surface Forecast 7 am Wednesday

The big issue with this storm is the lack of high pressure to the north.  Many of our storms this winter have had limited moisture and very cold temperatures that led to fluff bombs.  This storm is more like the first storm of the season in December that dumped snow/sleet/ice/rain.  There is a lot of moisture in this storm

WPC 5 day rainfall totals 

In SNE note most of that precip falls Wednesday.  It appears that this event begins early Wednesday AM and starts as Snow for everyone.  The flip to rain will be quick in SE MA, S RI, and SE CT.  Areas further north like Boston to Providence to Hartford should flip to sleet/freezing rain/ and plain rain by noon time.  The mix may extend in Southern Worcester County and out to Springfield but N & W of 495/Pike should stay all snow.  No amounts yet as I'm still debating which snow ratio's to use but here is a general guess

02.05.14 impact expectation

There is another shot at a storm next weekend, but I'll focus on that later.  I plan on doing a video tomorrow afternoon.  Have a good one.

-Zack Green