Thursday, February 13, 2014

Another Batch of Precipitation Tonight

The first phase of this winter storm is over.  Nearly a foot of snow fell in Central and Western MA, Southern New Hampshire, and Eastern Connecticut.  The second phase is the lull in precipitation region wide.  The third and final phase will occur from 10-7 am.  This will occur as the storm center moves over SE MA and moves into the Gulf of Maine.  

Discussion
Here are the preliminary snow totals
NWS Boston 7 PM preliminary snow totals
Winds gusted 40-55 MPH in SE MA.   Winds will continue to gust close to 40 MPH especially in heavier precipitation.  Here is the regional radar as of 828 PM
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 828 PM
Here is the water vapor image with surface fronts from 815 PM
GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite 815 PM
This is a textbook satellite image.  This is driven by a strong upper level low
00z NAM 7 PM 500 mb Vorticity (image NCEP)
And also by a strong jet stream
00z NAM 7 PM 300 mb winds (image NCEP)
By 1 AM the low should be near the SE MA coast or over it
WPC Surface Forecast 1 AM Friday
High res guidance and radar trends suggest another 0.5 inch of precipitation for most of New England and perhaps some big time snowfall accumulations in the Berkshires.  This is likely rain in Eastern MA.  In Worcester County I see mainly snow north of the Pike with mixed precip  across Southern Worcester County.  I think the Berkshires end up as the big snowfall winners from this one.  Precip ends around 7 am.  

Enjoy the snow

-Zack Green




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