Several Inches of Snow Today

A quick moving storm will drop several inches of snow across Southern New England today.  Most of the precip will fall early this afternoon and this will impact the PM commute in Eastern MA.  The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm Warning for parts of the region (in pink) and a Winter Weather Advisory (in blue) for others.  The Cape, Islands, and SE MA are not included in the headlines as they will see mostly rain.

NWS Boston Headlines 02/18/14

Overview

A storm in the Great Lakes will move towards New England today and will strengthen south of New England.  Here is the surface chart

WPC 4 am Surface Analysis 

The regional radar shows some precipitation already streaming into Western New England.  A lot of this is not reaching the ground.  Expect snow to begin accumulating around 7 am in W CT/MA and by 9 in Boston.

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 528 am

It is cold in New England this AM.  SW CT and the Outer Cape are the only ones in the 20's.  This means snow will stick immediately and travel will become difficult.

4 am 2 m temperatures (image Weatherbell)

As the low track towards New England it will bring some low level warmth across CT/RI/SE MA.  Temperatures will climb to near 32 in those areas.  Temperatures are on track to remain in the upper 20's for the rest of MA/S NH.

Forecast

Latest HRRR (super short range/high resolution model) seems to have a good handle on the convection.  This would bring the moderate to heavy snow into CT by 10-12 PM and into MA around 12. 

09z HRRR simulated radar 12 PM (image Weatherbell)

Here is the projected surface chart at 1 PM

WPC Surface Forecast 1 PM Tues

The low deepens this PM and snow falls heavily until about 4 PM in Springfield-Worcester-Providence.  Snow hangs on through the evening commute in Boston.

09 HRRR Simulated Radar 4 PM (image Weatherbell)

By 7 PM the storm will continue to deepen in the Gulf of Maine but it will be clear of Southern New England

WPC Surface Forecast 7 PM tonight 

Here is my snowfall forecast

My Snow Expectation 

I could see some higher amounts in the 3-6" if thundersnow is able to develop this PM.  The snow will be fast & furious with any convection this afternoon.  

-Zack Green