Forecast Update

A strong winter storm will impact many in the Eastern US over the next 2-3 days.  The storm is expected to track over the Cape which means many South of the pike and inside of 495 will change to rain for a period on Thursday.  Heavy wet snow will fall before any changeover and this storm will pack strong winds.  

General Overview
The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm Watch for inland areas in blue
NWS Boston Headlines
Temperatures remain cold across the Eastern 2/3 of the country
US 6 PM 2 m temps (image Weatherbell)
Here is the surface chart.  High pressure in the Great Lakes is allowing cold air to pour into the South.  This sets the stage for a major Snow/Ice event in the South tonight/tomorrow.  This situation is no joke for our friends down there.  Ice can be paralyzing for any community, no matter how use to winter.
WPC 4 PM Surface Analysis 
Here is the Southern Mississippi Valley radar 
NWS Southern Mississippi Valley Regional Radar 648 PM
There is plenty of juice in this system.  

Short Term Forecast
Not to be overlooked is another bitterly cold night ahead.  Its already down to the teens away from the coast with clear skies.  Many areas will dip below zero.  Boston likely won't and neither will the Outer Cape. Here is a short range high resolution model 
22z HRRR 2 m min temp 6 AM (image Weatherbell)
Wednesday is mostly sunny with highs in the low 20's. By Wednesday night the coastal low will be organizing off the Southeast coast.  The cold dome of high pressure will slide offshore and clouds will increase.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper teens.  By Thursday morning the storm will be deepening near the Outer Banks

Storm Forecast
Here is the projected surface chart 7 am Thursday morning
WPC Surface Forecast 7 am Thur
Everyone except starts with snow, even Nantucket and the Outer Cape but they will switch to rain quickly.  The initial burst of snow will be substantial, much like last Wednesday.  Snow breaks out around 7-9 AM and will be intense until early-mid afternoon.   At this point the low will be nearing the Cape.  It will draw warm air into the system and change the snow over to mix/rain.
Precipitation Type Expectation
The rain probably makes it to the Mass Pike for a time Thursday night.  That is where the battleground is likely to be  Thursday 7 PM projected surface chart
WPC Surface Forecast 7 PM Thursday
As the low pulls away cold air is drawn back into Southern New England to finish the event as snow.  So snowfall amounts
SNE Snow Expectation Thursday-Friday
Strong winds combining with a heavy wet snow will lead to scattered power outages.  1.5-2" of precipitation will fall out of the sky so isolated street flooding is also possible.  More in the AM.

-Zack Green



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