Wednesday Weekend Update

It's never too early to look at the weekend forecast.  The northeast is looking at a warm up for the long weekend* (Massachusetts and Maine).  Lets start Friday night

Weekend Outlook
A ridge will build in the east as high pressure in Canada influences our weather.  It is dry all weekend.  Winds will be out of the North Friday evening so temperatures will start in the 40s and drop into the 30s.  On Saturday the high pressure in Southern Ontario/Quebec begins to slide offshore so there will be a wind shift.  Here is the surface chart Saturday 8 AM

WPC Saturday AM surface forecast 

If this moves offshore fast enough temperatures will climb into the 60s away from the coast Saturday afternoon.  The ocean is still mighty cold so the Cape and Eastern MA are brutal.  Here is one model for Saturday PM max temperatures

12z GFS 2 m max temps Saturday PM (image Weatherbell)

You can see how close the 60s are.  I'm leaning towards a quicker exit of the cold front so outside of 95 temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s.  By Sunday the wind direction shifts again and temperatures easily soar into the 60s/near 70.  Skies remain clear.  Golf, cookouts, hiking etc is all prime on Sunday.  Again the coast and the Cape/Islands remain much cooler than surrounding areas.  This is the spring time curse for these areas.

Marathon Monday is warm.  This stinks for the runners but it is great for everyone going to Fenway to watch the starting pitcher give up 5+ runs and for everyone lining up from Hopkington to Boston.

12z GFS 2 m max temps Monday PM (Image Weatherbell)

Enjoy the weekend.  April is notorious for blown forecasts due to back door cold fronts so I'll keep an eye on it.

-Zack Green

AccuWeather Extends Forecasts from 45 days to 90 days

(Source)- The leading minds in meteorology say weather forecasts aren’t reliable more than seven to 10 days out. Yet AccuWeather, is — more than ever — defying what science says is the limit of useful weather forecasting.

In recent days, AccuWeather added forecasts extending 90 days into the future on its website, doubling the amount of time into the future for which the State College, Pa.-based company provides predictions.

But valuable forecasts so far into the future simply aren’t possible, many scientists with expertise in weather prediction say. I asked three leading meteorologists, who hold doctoral degrees, what the limit of reliable weather forecasts are and they all responded with essentially the same answer — 7-10 days.

A lot of people in the weather world are crushing AccuWeather today.  All of the employees seem to be toeing the company line because no one has complained publicly but I have to imagine they aren't thrilled with this either.   Meteorology forecasting is capped around 2 weeks because of the Butterfly Effect/Chaos Theory.  At two weeks the differences from the start of any weather model are so great its useless.  They use to tell us in meteorology school that if a butterfly flaps its wings in Africa it could send a Hurricane up the east coast.  However if that butterfly flies 2 feet higher in the air it could send the Hurricane into Mexico.  But whatever if AccuWeather thinks it has figured something out then good for them and we are going to test it.  First up Memorial Day

AccuWeather forecast for Boston 5/30/16- Memorial Day

That east wind is a real killer.  Its not much better in New York City either

AccuWeather forecast for New York City 5/30/16- Memorial Day

Sometimes the weather does suck on Memorial Day so maybe.  It looks like they are forecasting a surface low pressure wave and a cold front along the east coast.  Its not impossible it happened in 2003.  So more importantly is 4th of July, 84 days away.

Boston then New York

AccuWeather 4th of July forecast, Boston

AccuWeather 4th of July forecast New York City

This forecast is nice but I see a few issues.  The winds shift from West to South overnight.  The temperatures do not drop all that much which makes sense with a shift to a S/SW wind.  But on July 5 the temperatures are still around 80.   If AccuWeather will make a call 85 days out then so will I- temperatures in the 80s for the 4th with a chance of thunderstorms for Boston and New York.  

National Weather Service to STOP USING ALL CAPS

(Source)- The National Weather Service has screamed its weather forecasts in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY but beginning next month, the agency said it plans to lower its voice unless there's an emergency.

Weather updates have traditionally been sent in all capital letters since the National Weather Service used teleprinters, which are typewriters hooked up to telephone lines that only allowed for the use of capital letters. Of course, technology has evolved but some customers have still used the outdated equipment, according to a news release from the National Weather Service.

Effective May 11, the agency plans to transition to mixed-case letters for most forecasts, although forecasters will still have the option to use all upper-case letters when they want to emphasize extremely dangerous conditions, according to the update, making sure you don't take that SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING lightly.

For some reason the all caps really bothered some people.  They took it offense to the fact that the National Weather Service forecasts used capital letters thanks to a spectacularly outdated system to distribute warnings.  Even though email and the internet made communications instantaneous some companies never updated their technology so the NWS had to keep using all caps.  And this isn't surprising.  Go over your parents or grandparents house and you will likely see minimal improvements to technology.  My grandfather didn't know he had an HD TV for 10 years until he switched from dish to cable.  My mom had a Blackberry until last summer.

4/12/16 NWS Boston discussion

 I suppose I got used to it because I am a nerd and I read the disco everyday.  I won't be sad to see it go BECAUSE WHO LIKES TO BE YELLED AT ALL THE TIME?

Heavy Rain Tuesday AM in Southern New England

A cold front will push heavy rain across the Northeast and Southern New England Tuesday AM.  This rain will impact the second half of the morning commute in Eastern MA.  Lets take a quick look at the northeast surface chart

WPC surface analysis 5 PM 

Southerly flow in front of this cold front is helping to transport warm moist air into the northeast.  A quick glance at the regional radar confirms this

NWS Northeast regional radar 

By morning all that activity will be moving into New England.  People who head to Boston before 8 AM will just have to deal with the normal headache traffic unless some moron decides to play bumper cars on the Pike or 93.  Here is the simulated radar as of 8 AM

24 hr 18z HRRR simulated radar valid 8 AM (image Weatherbell)

This model is hinting at some snow in upstate New York on the backside of this.  I wouldn't anticipate accumulation but these April snow threats are getting old.  The rain will continue through mid afternoon but it should be done before the Red Sox game (and Mets, Phillies, Nats - see this post).  Temperatures aren't all that bad despite the rain.  Low 50's will accompany the rain.  Temperatures will drop behind the cold front Tuesday night.

WPC Tuesday 8 PM surface forecast

The good news is we should get back up near 70 this weekend.  Total rainfall is in general 0.5 to 1.25" of rain with isolated higher amounts.

18z Hires NAM total precipitation through 8 PM Tuesday (image Weatherbell)

Enjoy your night.

-Zack Green

Texas Declares War on Hail

(Source)- Thousands of severe hailstorms pelt the U.S. each year,​causing, on average, $1 billion in damage to crops and property. The expense is so extreme that a few years ago Texas, eager to find ways to reduce insured losses, declared a war on hail.

Mother Nature wasn’t listening. The state has already been pummeled twice this year by major hailstorms, and the season has only just begun.

Because few lives are lost to hail, the storms don’t attract as much attention as tornadoes or hurricanes, but they occur more frequently, last longer and cover wider areas, leading to extensive and expensive damage.

The icy projectiles can puncture roofs, shatter windshields, shred crops and, on rare occasion, take lives. Since 1990, hail has killed 14 people in the U.S. and injured more than 1,000, according to statistics kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

You've heard of the war on drugs, the war on Christmas and even Jason Whitlocks new war on domestic violence (figure that one out).  What you haven't heard of is Texas' war on hail.   Between 1999 and 2011 Texas lost $10.1 billion in insurance losses to hail damage.  This is something not limited to just Texas either.  Hail in the Great Plains and Midwest is legendary.  The largest stone ever recorded fell in Vivian, SD in 2010.  It measured 7.9" in diameter and 18.62" of circumference.  It weighed 1.94 lbs.  

September 2010 hailstone from Vivian, SD (image KELO)

The northeast is not immune to these storms either.  On August 4, 2015 a super cell thunderstorm dropped 2" in diameter hail in Boston smashing car windows.

As anyone who has ever had a smashed windshield it sucks.  Thank god for JN Phillips and parking lot service to replace windshields.  Of course if an 8" in diameter hailstone falls on your car you are going to need more than just JN Phillips to fix the damage.  Its safe to say Texas lost the battle today but keep fighting friends.

DFW NBC 5 hail damage photo 

Via FOX4

Severe Thunderstorms impacting Southern Plains, Southeast

There have been several tornado warnings in Texas today as thunderstorms capable of producing baseball sized hail are ripping through Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.  The tornado threat is low but not zero.  As of 612 EDT a tornado warning is up for Pickton, TX. Large hail, strong winds and lightning remain the primary threats.  Via Marcus Diaz @TheTXWxChaser

That type of hail can knock a grown adult out not to mention the damage this will do cars and poorly constructed buildings such as barns.  Here is the Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook

SPC day 1 thunderstorm outlook 

Here is the radar in the Mississippi River Valley/Southern Plains

NWS South Plains regional radar

NWS Southern Mississippi River Valley regional radar 

These storms will progress into Alabama and Georgia tonight. Right now it is heavy rain in Alabama but the severe threat will increase as the cold front moves east.  The warm moist Gulf of Mexico air will continue to clash with the cold Canadian air in the Midwest.  As a result there could be a few tornadoes tonight.  Turn on those severe weather alerts on your cell phone just in case.  Night time tornadoes produced the majority of tornado deaths.  The simulated radar for 4 AM shows a nasty line of thunderstorms bearing down on New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola.

20z HRRR simulated radar 4 AM EST (image Weatherbell)

The severe weather threat lessens as this cold front pushes offshore tomorrow.

-Zack Green

MLB Weekday Series Weather Outlook

The geniuses who make the MLB schedule had one hell of an opening week.  From snow in Chicago to cold rain in Cleveland, New York and Washington it was truly miserable.  Meanwhile the Padres and the Dodgers opened up against one another and Houston opened in New York.  The weather generally turns around mid April in the North so its not like you need to fool around with the schedule all the much.  On to the forecast

Weekday Series

There is a slight chance of showers in Toronto, Seattle and Houston so I would expect the roofs to be closed tonight (Houston, Seattle) and tomorrow (all three).  Houston will have a chance of severe weather this afternoon but that will lessen this evening.  

Northeastern Outlook

Boston-Baltimore, Philadelphia-San Diego, Washington-Atlanta, New York (NL)-Miami

A cold front will cross the northeast on Tuesday,  That makes Monday the pick of the week for all the northeastern series through Thursday.  Southerly winds will flip to the North-Northwest allowing for temperatures to crash into the 40s and 50s instead of 60s and 70s.  There will also be a chance of precipitation in Boston on Tuesday albeit a small chance.  Most of the rain should clear the coast by mid afternoon.  Wednesday is dry but chilly.  Here is the afternoon surface chart

Monday Afternoon 2 PM surface analysis (image credit Weather Prediction Center/WPC)

Here is the Tuesday forecast for 8 PM EST

WPC surface forecast Tuesday 8 PM

Keeping these surface images in mind let's transition to the Midwest forecast

Midwestern Outlook

Detroit-Pittsburgh, Minnesota-Chicago (AL), St. Louis-Milwaukee, Chicago (NL)-Cincinnati

Detroit had an early start today so it avoided the sharp temperature drop that occurred as the cold front passed through.  Temperatures will be below average in Minnesota, Chicago and St. Louis today though they will be dry.  Here is a look at the 3 PM (2 PM central temps) courtesy of Weatherbell.

2 m temperatures Monday 3 PM EST (image Weatherbell)

Tuesday is also below average in the Midwest but only Detroit plays and they get going at 1 PM.  The temperature will struggle to get out of the 40s but it will be dry.  Its much warmer in Minneapolis and St. Louis on Wednesday but it stays in the upper 40s and lower 50s in Chicago and Detroit.  Although slightly warmer in Chicago and Detroit on Thursday winds off the lakes keep it cooler than Minnesota and St. Louis.  

Western Outlook

Oakland-Los Angeles (AL), Los Angeles (NL)-Arizona, Colorado-San Francisco 

The weather will be very pleasant in Oakland for this series.  First pitch temperatures will be near 60 with mostly clear skies.  Wednesday is a 1230 PM first pitch so temperatures will be in the upper 60s.  Down in LA  the weather is 70 and mostly sunny for each game.  Heading to the Rockies it will be warm in the afternoon (mid 70s) but dropping into the low 60s/upper 50s for gametime.  

Looking ahead to the weekend the only potential issues I see at the moment are in Texas and St. Louis.  A potent system will develop out of the Rockies late this week and may cause some mischief Saturday and Sunday.  Full update Thursday for those games.  

Tweet me @zgreenwx with questions, comments and concerns.

-Zack Green